#19: The Filipowski Theory

Many niche sports fans are familiar with “The Ewing Theory”, a theory originated by Dave Cirilli and popularized by Bill Simmons which posited that Ewing’s teams, both Georgetown and the New York Knicks, played better when he was off the court. It was never a slight at Ewing or a suggestion that the seven-time All-NBA player was a bad or negative basketball player, but rather an assertion that when he was in the game, his teammates and coaches relied on him too heavily and his absence from the court allowed other players cast in lesser roles to flourish.

Over the years, there have been countless examples across all major team sports of star players who were either injured or traded away, only to see their team survive, and sometimes even flourish, without them. Those aware of Bill Simmons’ work are quick to cite The Ewing Theory in these instances, even when the greater public will have no clue how the shorthanded team could possibly not feel the effect of losing the player whom the public perceives as its most important... it shouldn’t make sense. 

Insert the 2023-24 Duke Blue Devils. Through 21 games, Duke is 16-5 and ranked #7 in the country, though that ranking will likely fall after Saturday night’s loss to North Carolina. While it hasn’t been quite the season many expected in Durham – the Blue Devils were ranked #2 in the preseason AP Top 25 behind only Kansas – Duke has certainly improved in Jon Scheyer’s second season at the helm.

With such a talented nucleus, it’s impossible to single out just one player’s efforts as the primary reason for the team’s success. However, the plurality of the credit from fans and the mainstream media has been given to sophomore center Kyle Filipowski, who returned to Bull City for a second season after winning ACC Rookie of the Year and leading the Blue Devils to the 2023 ACC Tournament Championship (he also won the tournament’s Most Outstanding Player award for his efforts).

He was the third of three freshmen starters to announce his intentions to return to school for another year. To make things even better, senior guard Jeremy Roach withdrew his name from the NBA Draft and 247's #2 ranked recruiting class was on its way. Duke hadn’t returned over 60% of both its minutes played and scoring total from the previous season since 2009-10 when Scheyer was a senior captain, and you know what happened then. Make no mistake about it, this team was supposed to be special.

Filipowski's final game of his freshman season may have sparked his return. (Source: Getty Images)

Filipowski, or “Flip”, entered the year as the Preseason ACC Player of the Year and a consensus Preseason All-American, and to the untrained eye, he’s lived up to those lofty expectations. He’s averaging 17.7 points, 8.5 rebounds, 2.8 assists, and 1.8 blocks per game. He’s upped his two-point field goal percentage from 50.5% as a freshman to 56.1%, and his three-point percentage has similarly increased from 28.2% to 35.6%. He’s seemingly solidified himself as a potential lottery pick in the upcoming 2024 NBA Draft – ESPN currently has him 9th on its list of best available prospects.

So why has his play frustrated so many of those who watch the team game in and game out? Why has it often seemed like the impact on the court hasn’t lived up to the endgame stat line? For example, last night against North Carolina, he had 22 points on 9-17 shooting and 5 rebounds, but not a single person who watched, save his immediate family, would tell you he had a good game. His 17 point, 15 rebound performance against lowly Louisville wasn’t given much more fanfare. Where is the disconnect coming from?

Throughout the course of the game and especially when Duke is in need of a basket, Scheyer will often count on Filipowski to make a play and draw up a set to isolate him against his defender, either in the low post or out on the perimeter. The result has been a mixed bag. At its worst, viewers have seen a lot of spin moves into a defender, frustrating mid-range fadeaways, step-back three pointers clanging off the rim, and many other variations of a failed possession. 

To his credit, there are also times he has delivered. Perhaps the most notable was a late-game possession against Clemson. The Blue Devils, who inbounded the ball down two, improbably took a one-point lead with just a handful of seconds to go thanks to an old fashioned three-point play from Flip, who calmly sunk the go-ahead free throw despite only being 4-10 from the line in the game up until that point. But more on that later.

But The Ewing Theory is much more than just an eye test, and the case for Filipowski’s candidacy is supported by the numbers. First, let’s look at the offense. In games against power conference opponents, Duke has scored 109.5 points per 100 possessions with Filipowski on the court in live-ball situations (excluding late-game fouling, technical free throws, etc.). Without Filipowski on the court, the Blue Devils have scored 113.1 points per 100 possessions against those same opponents, meaning they’ve been 3.6 points better without their leading scorer.

Filipowski's gaudy numbers have not translated to on-court impact so far this year. (Source: GoDuke)

What is the reason for this? One immediately has to wonder if Filipowski has the athleticism to consistently dominate high-level competition. His scoring, rebounding, assist, steal, and block rates have all been lower this year against power conference teams (yes, it’d be fair to expect a slight drop-off as the competition gets harder). He’s shooting 46.6% from the field (51.8% from two, 33.3% from three) in these games, a low mark for a center even with all the outside shots he takes. After shooting over 76% from the free throw line as a freshman, he’s been just a measly 63% in these games, including 28/50 (56%) in the last eight. And, no, you’re not the only one remembering that a lot of the recent misses have been short... is he wearing down?

Whatever the reason, the Blue Devils are better suited running the offense through the perimeter than their talented big man. The backcourt of Jeremy Roach, Jared McCain, Tyrese Proctor, and Caleb Foster could be argued as the most offensively talented in the country. While Flip’s backup, graduate transfer Ryan Young, comes with his own share of frustrating moments, his offensive usage is far less than Filipowski (over 14 less field goal attempts per 100 possessions), and those possessions that aren’t being gummed up by Flip isolations are being distributed to the other players on the team who are more than capable of scoring. 

The defensive side of the ball is an even more drastic argument against Filipowski, if the numbers are to be believed (you can insert the normal shooting luck caveat with defensive statistics if you wish). With him on the court, the Blue Devils have conceded 105.6 points per 100 possessions against power conference opponents. Without him on the court, they’ve given up 94.9 points per 100 possessions, 10.7 points better than when he’s on the court. For context, Duke gave up 99.9 points per 100 possessions a season ago with Dereck Lively II on the court, which probably indicates there is some flukiness behind that 94.9 defensive rating. If you look only at the power conference games where the non-Flip lineups played for at least 8 minutes on the court combined, the number rises to 100.6, which is probably closer to an accurate representation.

Even if the defense without Filipowski on the court isn’t actually any better, it probably isn’t significantly worse. Sure, Ryan Young is mercilessly hunted to guard ball screens by smart teams, but he’s at least never in a situation where he has to weigh conceding a basket versus giving up a foul, a dilemma Flip often faces due to Scheyer’s insistence on keeping him in the game at all costs. While Filipowski has improved drastically as a shot blocker, he’s still nowhere near the level of rim protector to deter teams away from challenging him at the basket, especially with the perceived reward of saddling him on the bench with foul trouble.

The exact same point can be made about the offense. Even if you don't think the Blue Devils are a more efficient offensive team when Filipowski is on the bench, the fact that they aren't glaringly better with their potential All-American on the court is evidence enough that something isn't working schematically. None of this is meant to suggest that Duke would be better off with Flip riding the pine going forward, but rather that the philosophy of the team needs to change. Duke is 22nd in the country in three-point percentage (38.1%) – and that’s despite Mark Mitchell’s outside shot not returning to school with him – but they aren’t even in the top 200 in attempts per game. At the end of the day, this comes down to coaching. Scheyer needs to stop prioritizing running things through the big man and change the focus of the offense to a peremier-oriented attack. Both Filipowski and the team as a whole would be better for the shift.

Just for clarification, this post is not meant to degrade Kyle Filipowski as a basketball player. There is no reason an offensive talent like him should see his team score more efficiently without him, but that boils down to how he’s being (over)used. The offense has been very good, and at times great, but not elite, and there’s far too much talent on the roster for it not to be. It probably has to reach that level for this team to make a deep run in March, given the lack of personnel necessary to become elite defensively. There’s been a lot of good moments in Scheyer’s first two years in charge, but making the changes needed to optimize this year’s team will go a long way in showing whether or not he actually has the chops for this job. 

#18: The Honest Truth about Jeremy Roach

Down 54-31 early in the second half last night against North Carolina State, first-year head coach Jon Scheyer made an eyebrow-raising decision in benching his point guard and captain, Jeremy Roach. Roach would not return to the court for the final 16:50 of what ended as an 84-60 drubbing of the #16 Blue Devils. The junior from Leesburg, VA had been battling a foot injury since an early season loss to Purdue, and it'd be easy to point to that when explaining Scheyer’s decision. More likely, however, is that Scheyer finally conceded to the truth that those who’ve been following Duke all season long have noticed: Jeremy Roach has been bad.

It would be easy to label the first two seasons for Roach as “up-and-down”. In both, he spent significant time as the starting point guard, only to lose the mantle with his inconsistent play. To his credit, he was able to win the job back both years and had some of his best moments in a Duke uniform during last season’s run to the Final Four – Duke's first since 2015. He propelled the Blue Devils to multiple nail-biting wins with crucial shots down the stretches of games, and his back-to-back 15-point performances against Michigan State and Texas Tech were perhaps the best two-game stretch of his young career, given the circumstances.

Many believed Roach's tournament success would be a sign of things to come as an upperclassman. He was named to the Preseason All-ACC First Team by the media, and The Athletic’s Brendan Marks highlighted his success in his ACC preview: “If [Roach] plays like he did in March, Duke will be as lethal as ever.” I don’t think many people have taken the time to reflect on the entirety of Roach’s play during the tournament run, so allow me: For the 2022 NCAA Tournament, Jeremy Roach averaged 11.8 points, 4.0 assists, 2.8 rebounds, and 3.0 turnovers per game. He shot 21 of 48 (43.8%) from the field – slightly above his season average of 41.0% – and 2 for 13 (15.4%) from behind the three-point line. In the Final Four loss to North Carolina, he scored just 8 points on 2 of 11 from the field and 0 for 5 from three. He was also one of the primary defenders on both Caleb Love and RJ Davis, who combined for 46 of UNC’s 81 points and shot 17 for 33 (51.5%) from the field. The end result ended up being a microcosm of Roach’s career to date at Duke: a mixed bag. 

Flash forward to this season, and the inconsistencies that have plagued Roach’s entire career are not only still in the picture, but they’re front and center. After tying a career-high with 22 points against Iowa in Madison Square Garden, Roach’s last three games have looked so far from what many in the media expected from him this season that it’s almost time to start revoking credentials. He made just 5 of his 25 field goal attempts in the three games and turned the ball over more times than he’s assisted his teammates. As you might expect, Duke has taken two losses in that stretch, both of which were convincing.

The leader Duke needs has not shown up in Duke's last three games. (Source: WRAL Sports Fan)

Much of the problems with Roach can simply be traced back to who he is as a player. He was a consensus top-twenty recruit coming out of Paul VI High School and was ranked the #4 point guard by both ESPN and 247 Sports, but he simply isn’t a point guard. His size certainly indicates that he should be one, but he’s just not. In his first two seasons at Duke, Coach K partitioned many of the playmaking duties Roach should’ve burdened to guys like Wendell Moore and Jordan Goldwire. This year, despite it being “his team”, the same is happening with Jaylen Blakes and Tyrese Proctor. Defensively, his size is always going to be a problem. In each of his first three seasons, his team has been staggeringly better defensively with him on the bench. Despite the coaching staff lauding his efforts on this end of the floor in the past, these are facts that are impossible to ignore. 

Shooting just 33.3% from three-point range to date this season, despite being a career best, is far too low for a guard. He’s also shooting a career-low 40.9% on two-point field goals, highlighted by numerous attempts around the rim being swatted away by bigger defenders. Barring an unforeseen growth spurt, Roach’s decision making will need to improve in this area for his offensive efficiency to recover. When Roach has been at his best for Duke offensively this season, it’s been operating in what many analysts have dubbed “the floater range” – roughly 1-2 dribbles further away from the basket than what would be considered a shot at the rim. Whether it’s getting him the ball there via a pin-down screen or by beating his man off the dribble, Roach has shown flashes this season as a reliable offensive engine in this area. 

During Duke’s most recent three games, we haven’t seen nearly enough offensive actions getting the ball to Roach in this area of the court. Instead, he’s either been taking the ball one dribble too many and being rejected at the rim, or he's settling for a pull-up jump shot one step inside of the three-point arc. Even in the blowout win over Florida State on New Year’s Eve, Roach was forcing too much of his offensive involvement, instead of just letting the game come to him. He did hit two threes against the Seminoles, but shot 0 for 5 from inside the arc and just 2 of 10 for the game overall. 

It should go without saying that Duke needs Jeremy Roach to be good in order to reach the idealized version of this year’s team. With that said, if Jeremy Roach actually is Duke’s best player this season, the ceiling of the 2022-23 Blue Devils is incredibly low. He simply isn’t good enough to be “the guy” on an elite Duke team, but Duke will need multiple young freshmen to step up in order to slot Roach into the complementary role that he’s meant for. Getting pulled for almost the entirety of the second half wasn’t some jedi mind trick by Coach Scheyer, nor was it a sign that his injury is worse than what is being let on. It was the rookie coach’s realization that #3 in blue wasn’t one of the five best players on the team that day. It’s too early to count this year’s youthful team out, but a lot needs to go right if this group of players has any hopes of making Scheyer’s first season at the helm a memorable one in a positive way.

#17: Duke 79, Kentucky 71

With all the fanfare surrounding Mike Krzyzewski’s final season leading up to it, it was almost possible to forget that Duke Basketball had a game to play on Tuesday night. While the pomp and circumstance won’t slow down anytime soon, the Blue Devils proved to the nation just how good they can be with a 79-71 victory over the #10 Kentucky Wildcats in the 11th edition of the Champions Classic. While it wasn’t the sexiest win, Duke looked the better team throughout and was able to win what will most likely be Coach K’s final game in Madison Square Garden. We’re still over four months away from a bracket even being unveiled, but this Duke team looked the part of a Final Four contender in their first game. 

While it was certainly a team effort, Duke was led by two members of the 2021 freshmen class, Paolo Banchero and Trevor Keels – both of whom scored big baskets down the stretch to seal the victory. There was a lot of hype surrounding Banchero’s collegiate debut, and he certainly delivered with 22 points and 7 rebounds, but it was Keels who led the Blue Devils in scoring with 25 points on 10-18 from the field. Keels looked every bit of his 221-pound billing and was able to physically assert his will on the overmatched guards of Kentucky on multiple occasions. While he was certainly on the NBA radar before last night’s win, there’s no doubt a performance on such a big stage only helped his stock.

No prospect improved his draft stock more than 6-5 freshman guard Trevor Keels last night. The powerful paint attacks were clear, but I loved the poise/passing & defense. Put the clamps on TyTy Washington from the jump. Rises when the lights get bright. Best player on the floor. pic.twitter.com/J8UhhJw330

— Mike Schmitz (@Mike_Schmitz) November 10, 2021

Despite never trailing in the first half, Duke conceded the lead early in the second half behind a hot shooting start from the Wildcats. It was around this time that several Blue Devil players, including both Banchero and Keels, began to fall victim to cramping issues that forced them out of the game for short periods of time. However, Duke countered Kentucky’s push with a 24-8 extended run that saw their lead balloon to 15 points with just over nine minutes to play. After returning to the game, Banchero punctuated Duke’s lead with back-to-back midrange jumpers that brought the Duke supporters to their feet.

But the Wildcats clawed their way back into the game once more with 11 unanswered points, and had a look from three by Kellen Grady that would’ve cut the deficit to just one. Consecutive baskets from Keels and Banchero, plus an and-one free throw for the latter, widened Duke’s lead to nine before the under-4:00 media timeout, and the Blue Devils never looked back. Wendell Moore’s driving layup with 42 seconds left was the final stamp on Duke’s first win of the season, as the program improved to 9-4 all-time in the Champions Classic.

Trevor Keels shined on both sides of the ball in his Duke debut. (Source: GoDuke)

One of the biggest storylines throughout the game was the dominance of Kentucky’s Oscar Tshiebwe on the offensive glass. While sophomore center Mark Williams had his moments both offensively and defensively in this one, it was clear from the get-go that he was no match for the West Virginia transfer on the boards. The insertion of graduate transfer Theo John provided Duke with some more physicality against the nation's top offensive rebounder in 2019-20, but Tshiebwe still had his way, finishing the night with 12 offensive rebounds and 19 total. Kentucky as a team grabbed 19 offensive rebounds in the game, a number far too many for a team as big and athletic as Duke to give up. 

While Williams’ first half foul trouble would play a minor part in the decision, it would surprise many that it was John who played the majority of the minutes at center. Duke’s defense was approximately 28.31 points per 100 possessions better with John on the court than Williams last night, and the offense saw an uptick of 8.55 points per 100 possessions as well. While per possession statistics are incredible volatile in one-game samples, the Blue Devils were a better team last night with John on the court. Williams’ expectations were very high following his torrid finish to last season, but perhaps the playing time determination between he and the former Marquette Golden Eagle will simply be matchup-dependent rather than a traditional starter/backup allotment. The fight for playing time between the two is certainly something to monitor throughout the season.

Perhaps the most encouraging sign from last night was the improvement of Duke’s perimeter defense from a season ago. The team managed to hold Kentucky’s four main guards to 14/44 (31.8%) from the field over the course of the game and forced Georgia transfer Sahvir Wheeler into 7 turnovers. This stout defensive performance was also mostly without heralded freshman AJ Griffin, whose minutes were limited from what we can assume is residue from the knee injury last month. After only playing two minutes in the first half, Griffin did see more action in the second while three of the starters battled cramps and was a part of the early run in the second half that saw Duke take control of the game.

In the lengthy season preview post, we detailed three keys for the Blue Devils’ season. The first was Paolo Banchero, and he answered just how good he can be in the season opener. The second had to do with the point guard play. Jeremy Roach played almost the entire game for the Blue Devils, and while he didn’t look much different than the up-and-down freshman from last season, Duke’s offense struggled in the six possessions they played without him on the court. The team only had seven assists on the night, including just one from Roach, and was incredibly reliant on isolation production from its two leading scorers. Whether it be Roach, Moore, or even Keels, somebody will have to step up as the primary facilitator for this team to reach its ceiling. The final key was the team’s three-point shooting, and they didn’t answer any questions regarding that after shooting just 1/13 (7.7%) from beyond the arc last night.

While there was plenty of room for improvement in the performance, it’s hard not to be excited about the Blue Devils after one game. The move of the Champions Classic to the first game of the season meant these four elite programs would be thrown into the deep end on a big stage before even getting their feet wet. Duke as a program is now 3-0 in that scenario, and it’s fair to ask if the preseason #9 ranking was an unfair punishment for last year’s mediocrity. After all, Duke lost over half their minutes/scoring production from last season and brought in better players to replace it. But they’ll have plenty of chances to prove the voters wrong, including a date with current #1 Gonzaga looming near the end of the month. Directly ahead is a two-game slate this weekend against Army and Campbell, both of whom also won their first game last night.

#16: 2021-22 Duke Blue Devils Season Preview

The calendar has officially turned to November, which means the college basketball season is right around the corner. With Mike Krzyzewski’s coaching career coming to an end at the conclusion of this season, Duke fans should need no explanation of the importance and urgency around the program this year. But for this team to send the legendary coach off with one last championship, they’ll have plenty of work to do. While Duke has one of their most talented teams of recent memory in tow, multiple other schools boast strong rosters this season as well. Most preseason prognostications have Duke slated around the 9-10 range, which may disappoint some Blue Devil fans, but this is more to do with the strength of college basketball than it is any slight of this year’s Duke team. On the bright side, the 2009-10 championship team was ranked around the same position before the season began. This is a team that is very capable of being the last one standing in April. Save Duke Basketball is back after a long offseason to break it all down!

Note: All pictures from GoDuke unless otherwise noted.

Returning Players:

This season, Duke returns 40.1% of minutes played and 37.1% of points scored from the 2020-21 team that failed to qualify for the NCAA Tournament. While that may not seem like a substantial number – obviously, other preseason contenders have higher numbers – 37.1% of points scored is the highest number the Blue Devils have returned since the 2016-17 team that was the consensus preseason #1 team. No one in this year’s returning crop has the stature of a Grayson Allen or a Luke Kennard, or even the experience of an Amile Jefferson or a Matt Jones. Hell, even counting the graduate transfers, the members of this roster have a combined 24 minutes of NCAA Tournament experience between them. But these are the guys that will matter in March. You can't win a championship with just a slew of young freshmen and no upperclassmen to complement them. These four returnees will all need to take a leap forward for Duke to reach its ceiling as a team.

F Wendell Moore

2020-21 Stats: 9.7 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 2.7 APG

While Moore’s sophomore season still contained plenty of frustrating moments for Duke fans, there was notable improvement from his freshman year that shouldn’t be taken lightly. After an abysmal four-game stretch in December where he scored a combined six points, he matched a career high of 25 points against Boston College in a game Duke would’ve lost had he scored any less. Wendell then went on to average 11.3 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 3.1 assists the remainder of the season. His three-point shot improved immensely both in accuracy (21.1% to 30.1%) and in volume (1.3 attempts per 40 minutes to 4.4), and his free throw percentage (84.8% as a sophomore) would indicate that there’s still room for improvement from behind the arc as well. His turnover rate dropped from 24.7% to 17.4%, but he still needs to be more careful with the ball in his hands. Duke will rely on him as a ballhandler and playmaker yet again in 2021-22, and he may even see significant playing time at point guard.

Despite all these positives, there were plenty of negatives for Moore last season as well. Even if you remove the first five games of the season from consideration, Duke was still a better team with Moore on the bench last season, both offensively and defensively. The latter may come as a surprise as he’s regarded as one of Duke’s better defensive options on the perimeter, but Duke was roughly four points better defensively per 100 possessions with him on the bench, and that’s tough to ignore. Now entering his third season in Durham, Moore is going to be relied upon heavily in the backcourt again. He was recently named a team captain and he’s been voted Preseason All-ACC Second Team for the second consecutive season. With all the chaos of last season, it’s easy to forgive Moore for not making the leap that many expected as a sophomore, but now it really counts. Wendell is one of the biggest X-factors of this year’s Duke team, and whether he ascends as an upperclassman will play a big part in shaping the 2021-22 Blue Devils.

G Jeremy Roach

2020-21 Stats: 8.7 PPG, 2.2 RPG, 2.8 APG

Roach was handed the keys to the Duke offense in his freshman season, and to say the results were disappointing would be an understatement. His jump shot was maddeningly inconsistent, his distribution left much to be desired, he turned the ball over on almost 20% of his offensive possessions, and he was by far the team’s worst perimeter defender. Consistency was one of his biggest issues. After a six-game stretch where he averaged 14.0 points per game in December/January, he followed it up with two consecutive scoreless outings. In the late season three-game losing streak that doomed Duke’s at-large NCAA tournament hopes, Roach averaged just 5.3 points and 2.0 assists per game on 33.3% shooting. The on-off offensive numbers for the entire season were very favorable towards him considering he was mostly juxtaposed with the offensively-challenged Jordan Goldwire, but the eye test told the story of somebody who really struggled in his first season of college basketball. Such is the life of a freshman point guard in a power conference that isn’t a slam dunk pro prospect.

With a full year under his belt, the Blue Devils are counting on Roach to take a major step forward this season. For all his struggles and inconsistencies last season, he started 18 of 24 games and Coach K never pulled him out of the rotation entirely. He was named to the 2022 Bob Cousy Award (best point guard in America) watch list and he’ll have to play near that level for Duke to be as good as the most ambitious predictors could hope. He’s reuniting with his high school teammate, Trevor Keels, this season, which should give Roach an extra level of comfort running the offensive this season. Between he and Moore, Duke’s point guard play is the team’s biggest question mark heading into the 2021-22 campaign. If neither can seize the position and improve upon one of the team’s biggest weaknesses from a year ago, this team has zero chance of sending Coach K off with a sixth championship trophy.

C Mark Williams

2020-21 Stats: 7.1 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 1.4 BPG

Of all Duke’s returnees, Williams undoubtedly is the one with the most excitement around him. After his permanent insertion into the starting lineup last season, Williams averaged 12.0 points. 6.5 rebounds, and 2.0 blocks per game in just 23.2 minutes over an 11-game sample size. He ended the season on his highest note, logging 23 points and 19 rebounds in the ACC Tournament tilt against Louisville before Duke’s season was abruptly ended due to COVID-19. Trust me, many took notice of Williams’ emergence towards the end of last season, but Mark decided to return to Durham for his sophomore year. He’ll have a good chance of being a first-round NBA draft pick in 2022, but that can wait. For right now, he joins Moore on the Preseason All-ACC Second Team, and he’ll have to prove that the impact he had on the team’s stretch run last season can be reproduced over an entire season.

Williams will be the defensive anchor of this year’s Duke team – there’s an argument that he may be Duke’s best shot blocker since Shelden Williams – and how Duke sets up their system around him will be a major storyline to monitor throughout the season. We have seen repeatedly how Coach K prefers his defenses to play, but that over-aggressive style will not work with a center like Williams on the court. He’s at his best when he’s around the rim blocking/altering shots, and Duke needs to play a style that will allow him to do so. In 2017-18, Duke’s defensive and season outlook changed when Krzyzewski switched to a 2-3 zone and allowed Wendell Carter to protect the rim. I’m not suggesting he goes full-Boeheim again this season, but he needs to allow Williams to do what he does best rather than dragging him away from the basket and doing the opposing offenses' jobs for them.

Offensively, Williams was efficient around the basket and helped create second chance opportunities for the Blue Devils, but he was still not a positive for Duke according to on-off splits. This often is the price to pay when you sacrifice floor spacing for defense, but it is worth nothing that his offensive impact was around neutral from the first North Carolina game (when he was inserted into the starting lineup permanently) onward. Improving his free throw percentage (53.3%) would only help matters for Williams, and a full off-season in the Duke strength and conditioning program should also go a long way. He only played 350 minutes last season, but the list of guys who played at least that many minutes with a player efficiency rating of over 30 is as follows: Zion Williamson, Vernon Carey Jr., Jahlil Okafor, Marvin Bagley III, and Mark Williams. That’s some good company to be in.

F Joey Baker

2020-21 Stats: 2.9 PPG, 1.2 RPG, 0.4 APG

Baker’s junior campaign was plagued by his inability to consistently hit perimeter jumpers, but the rest of his offensive game did him no favors either. His struggles resulted in very sporadic playing time, but he was one of the few positive impact defensive players in the rotation last year. While he may miss a defensive rotation from time to time, there’s no denying the energy and communication he brings onto the court, two things that are paramount for a great defensive unit. Now entering his senior season, Baker is a team captain and he’s going to be one of the main sources of leadership on the team this year. What role he’ll play in the rotation will again come down to whether his three-point shot is falling, but there will be games where the Blue Devils will need him to hit a couple. After such an up-and-down first three seasons, it’d be a welcome sight to see Baker get his vindication in what could be his final season in Durham.

Newcomers:

Once again, Duke has brought in a recruiting class that rivals the best in the country. Even as Coach K is ready to ride off into the sunset, it doesn’t appear that coach-in-waiting Jon Scheyer has any intentions of slowing down the recruiting roll Duke has been on for the past decade. For 2021, Duke is bringing in a four-man class, three of which who should be instant impact players on this year’s team. While Duke’s chances this season will be significantly impacted by those who return, the freshmen will once again be the center of attention. On top of that, the Blue Devils also welcome two graduate transfers who figure to play a role in the frontcourt. 

F Paolo Banchero

#1 PF/#4 Overall (ESPN), #1 PF/#2 Overall (247 Sports)

Simply put, Paolo Banchero is Duke’s best, and most-hyped, prospect since Zion Williamson. Everything about this kid points to him being an absolute beast at the college level and beyond. Standing 6’10” and 250 pounds, Banchero’s 41-inch vertical leap seems almost impossible for a player his size. That combination of size and athleticism is rarely seen, and he has the skill level to match it. He can score from all three levels, and even can bring the ball up the court. He will garner serious consideration for the #1 overall pick in the 2022 NBA Draft and will be Duke's best player in Coach K’s final season at the helm. According to Vegas Insider, Paolo has the second-shortest odds to win the 2022 Wooden Award behind Gonzaga’s Drew Timme, who Duke will square off against on November 26th in Las Vegas. If Banchero lives up to the hype, the sky is the limit for this year's team.

F AJ Griffin

#6 SF/#29 Overall (ESPN), #5 SF/#17 Overall (247 Sports)

The son of former NBA player Adrian Griffin, AJ projects to be next in the lengthy line of Duke one-and-done wings. Like Banchero, he has great athleticism with a 40-inch vertical, and all the savviness you would expect from the son of a former NBA player/current NBA assistant coach. He possesses good size for the position and currently projects as a lottery pick in the 2022 NBA Draft. He did receive unwelcome news a few weeks back about a knee sprain that was expected to sideline him indefinitely, but after playing in Saturday’s exhibition against Winston Salem State, it appears to be “all systems go” for Griffin to be ready for the start of the season. Duke will hope for him to play a similar role to Justise Winslow’s on the 2015 national championship team.

G Trevor Keels

#3 SG/#23 Overall (ESPN), #2 SG/#22 Overall (247 Sports)

At 6’4” and 221 pounds, Keels has all the size you would want for a shooting guard and then some. He’s a very physical player, but don’t let that take away from his skill level. He very well could be the best perimeter scorer on this Duke team, and all reports out of Duke’s practices are that he’s even better than originally advertised. Playing with his former high school teammate should only help Keels as he acclimates to the college game, something that should take him less time than the average prospect given his physical stature. While the professional career of DJ Steward isn’t off to the best start so far, Duke fans may end up just fine with the tradeoff for Keels, who committed just one day after Steward announced his intentions of leaving Durham after just one year.

In depth article on Keels’ commitment: Link

G Jaylen Blakes

#21 PG/#91 Overall (ESPN), #17 PG/#105 Overall (247 Sports)

Blakes was the final member of the class to commit to Duke, and while he doesn’t figure to have a major role on this year’s team, he still could wind up being an important piece. We mentioned earlier that both Wendell Moore and Jeremy Roach will split the lion’s share of time as the primary ball handler, but just how much we see of Blakes could depend on the improvement of those two in their ability to run the show. If he doesn’t feature prominently this season, his development is certainly something to monitor in the coming years.

In depth article on Blakes’ commitment: Link

F Theo John

2020-21 Stats: 8.0 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 1.2 APG

After playing four years at Marquette under former Duke player and coach Steve Wojciechowski, Theo John chose to exhaust his collegiate eligibility in Durham and chase a national championship. He’s incredibly gifted physically and will mostly serve as Mark Williams’ backup at center. His final season in Milwaukee was a bit of a mixed bag – he posted a career high in true shooting percentage but saw his rebounding rates plummet and posted the lowest block percentage of his career as well. In his four years at Marquette, he never displayed any semblance of offensive prowess. On a team that doesn’t lack for firepower in that department, Duke will need John to get back to what he did best at Marquette in years prior: being an enforcer.

F Bates Jones

2020-21 Stats: 2.6 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 0.8 APG

The brother of former Duke quarterback, Daniel Jones, Bates will play out his college career at Duke and provide depth in the front court. He’s mostly known for his ability to stretch the floor as a four; he hit as many three-point field goals as he did two-point field goals in his four years at Davidson. At the time of his commitment, Henry Coleman III was still on Duke’s projected roster for 2021-22, which left almost no minutes at the power forward spot to go around. While you’d figure the Blue Devils will go small a good amount, Jones could figure to see a modest amount of minutes spelling Paolo Banchero throughout the season with Coleman now unfortunately out of the picture.

In depth article on Jones’ and John’s commitment: Link

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As we conclude, I do want to separate fact from fiction with this year’s team. It’s around this time every season that people talk about how deep the Blue Devils’ roster is. I can almost assure you there will be a 7 to 8-man rotation by March, just like every other season. There’s also hope that Coach K will be his best self in his final season, birthed from the narrative that he’s no longer splitting his attention from the team with recruiting efforts. Believe me, Mike Krzyzewski is who he is at this point. He is decrepit and stubborn and will not change. Do not expect a different version of him this season than the one you’ve seen mismanage talented rosters for the past five years. For me, there are three main keys to the season that will determine just how good this team can be:

1. Can Paolo Banchero play at a National Player of the Year level?
2. Can Jeremy Roach and Wendell Moore solidify the point guard position?
3. Can the team consistently hit three-pointers?

If the team can answer yes to all three of these questions, then they absolutely have what it takes to cut down the nets in New Orleans. Fair or not, every Duke season is judged by whether or not a banner is hung in Cameron Indoor Stadium at the end of it. There will be a significant amount of added pressure from Coach K’s final season and all the fanfare and attention that will come along with it, but this team is strong and built to manage it. It's going to be a wild ride, but that's what makes college basketball so much fun.

#15: Duke 2021 NBA Draft prospect prognosis

It’s an exciting time for Duke Basketball! Summer workouts have already begun in Durham, and the team has leaked a fair share of videos to get the fan base excited about the team. The 2021 NBA Draft is also just around the corner, with three former Blue Devils hoping to hear their names called. There will be plenty of time to talk about the 2021-22 Duke team leading up to the start of the season, so I figured it would be a good time to look at Duke’s draft hopefuls and where to expect their names to be called on June 29th:

Source: Last Word on Sports

Jalen Johnson

Because he left the program a month or so before the end of Duke’s season, Johnson is a guy we’ve hardly covered at Save Duke Basketball. His freshman season at Duke may have been the most tumultuous of any we’ve seen in the one-and-done era, culminating in a mid-February decision to opt out for the remainder of the season. While the entire program supported his decision (specifically by playing their best basketball of the season after he left), the jury is still out on whether it will positively or negatively impact where he hears his name called in the draft.

There’s a lot to like about Johnson as a prospect. He’s incredibly gifted athletically and has great playmaking skills for a player his size. His wingspan measured over 7’0” at the NBA combine, which should allow him to be disruptive on the defensive end with consistent effort. But there are still big holes in his game that will need to be smoothed over. He does not have a jumper that would instill confidence in anybody, he’s far too careless with the basketball, and the fact that we had to throw in a caveat of “with consistent effort” about his defense should imply said effort wasn’t always on display during his time in Durham.

The on-court flaws notwithstanding, perhaps the biggest question mark about Johnson has to do with what's between the ears. Leaving Duke a month before the season ended was one thing, but this is a young man who also left IMG Academy the year before without playing a game. Whether or not there's any connective tissue between those two events is something I can't speak on, but Jalen will have to hope that NBA front offices don't think so. 

When it comes to the status of Johnson's draft stock, it all depends on who you ask. There are some pundits out there that still see him as a lottery talent, while others have his stock as low as the later picks of the first round. A first-round pick on Jalen is certainly a risk, but some teams are more equipped to take that chance than others. If he lands in the right system that can properly develop him and work the kinks out of his game, he’ll have a good chance to prove why he was so highly touted coming out of high school.

Projection: Mid-first round pick

Source: Ball Durham

Matthew Hurt

There really isn’t a whole lot of news to break regarding Matthew Hurt as a draft prospect. Whoever ends up with the Minnesota native should know exactly what they’re going to get: a lights-out shooter from all spots on the court with an incredibly limited athletic profile, leading to severe defensive limitations. Luckily for Hurt, shooting is the most in-demand skill in the NBA right now, and could be his ticket to a roster spot and a guaranteed contract when the 2021-22 season begins.

Unfortunately for Hurt’s chances, he didn’t do much at the NBA combine to help himself. He had the second-highest body fat percentage (15.2%) of all players who tested and did not perform well in the agility drills. This specifically damaged Hurt’s draft stock because he failed to prove that he has the physical tools to defend 4’s at the NBA level. If a team takes a chance on him in the draft, it’s despite this physical deficiencies, and a glowing review of just how well he can shoot the ball.

A recent example of a player who had similar physical limitations, albeit playing a different position, is the Miami Heat’s Duncan Robinson. Robinson had a good reputation as a spot-up shooter coming out of Michigan, but had to develop the ability to hit shots on the move with little air space. With Hurt, the calculus is a bit different at power forward, but we saw at Duke that he could get his shot off against tight contests, a skill that NBA teams will value. If he continues to shoot the ball well in individual workouts, he has a chance of hearing his name called next Thursday.

Projection: Second-round pick

Source: Getty Images

DJ Steward

Steward’s decision to declare for the draft without the possibility of returning to college puzzled many, and it may end up proving very costly. After a dreadful performance at the NBA combine, Steward’s likelihood of hearing his name called on July 29th seems very low. He measured in shorter than 6’1” without shoes on and just 162.2 pounds, not exactly the type of build you’d prefer out of a combo guard with unproven point guard skills. On top of this, he struggled mightily in the 5-on-5 scrimmages. According to ESPN’s Jonathan Givony, NBA teams unanimously agreed that Steward would benefit from returning to Duke for a sophomore season.

When the news broke of his intention to leave Duke, we broke down examples of other players who boosted the trajectory of their NBA stock with strong sophomore seasons that Steward could have followed in the footsteps of. With that option officially off the table, Steward will now have an uphill battle to find himself on an NBA roster at the start of the 2021-22 season. It’s hard not imagining his lack of size being a deterrent to those chances, but the NBA is an offense-first league and Steward knows a thing or two about putting the ball in the basket.

Luckily for DJ, going undrafted would not be a death sentence to his career. There are plenty of examples of guys currently in the league who took that same path, including Fred VanVleet, Christian Wood, and even Duke’s own Seth Curry. If he does indeed go unselected, the most likely next step for Steward will be signing a two-way contract with a team in the days following the draft. He’d then have the Summer League and training camp to try and improve upon his perception following the combine, with hopes of converting that contract into a standard one with a guaranteed roster spot. Still, that's an incredibly hard road to take, which highlights just how seemingly bad the decision Steward made to not leave his options open was.

Projection: Undrafted

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Unfortunately for Duke, after a disappointing 2020-21 campaign, it looks to be an underwhelming outgoing professional class as well. If Johnson doesn't hear his name called in the first fourteen picks, it will be the second year in a row that Duke would fail to have a player selected in the lottery. Luckily for the program and fans alike, this streak is almost certain to end after just two seasons, as the 2021-22 roster looks to have multiple potential lottery picks in tow.

#14: Coach K retiring after 2021-22 season

BREAKING: Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski has decided to retire after this coming season, multiple sources told @stadium. Official announcement expected soon.

The leading candidate to replace K is assistant and former Duke player Jon Scheyer.

— Jeff Goodman (@GoodmanHoops) June 2, 2021

If you thought the college basketball news cycle was beginning to slow down as we turned the calendar to June, you were in for a whirlwind day. The entire landscape of the sport was rocked to its core on Wednesday afternoon when Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski announced the 2021-22 season would be his last. On top of that, news is already coming out that associate head coach Jon Scheyer is expected to be named the coach-in-waiting, ready to take over after the season ends. Wow! Duke has had its fair share of off-season news this spring, but there’s certainly none bigger than this. An era is officially coming to an end, and while many may view this as sad news, Save Duke Basketball is pretty damn excited.

It’s safe to assume that there was at least some knowledge of Krzyzewski's departure within the program before the news broke on Wednesday. Up until just recently, the coaching staff was very inactive on the recruiting trail for 2022 and onward, which is rather disconcerting given the typical nature of Duke’s rosters over recent years. As far as the current players on the roster, The Athletic’s Brendan Marks has reported that it may have been a factor in a few of the transfer defections this off-season. So, while this is shocking news to the general public, I wouldn’t expect a huge ripple effect to immediately impact the Duke roster for the 2021-22 season.

Speaking of the upcoming season, it should be no surprise that this is going to be treated as one last “all-in” push to win Coach K a sixth championship. Sure, there have been teams between 2015 and now that have been viewed in a similar light, but to coin a phrase from another legendary head coach, this is officially “The Last Dance”. The talent needed for such a run is certainly on the roster and they’ll need no extra motivation than winning a title for their coach in his farewell season, but it will still be an uphill battle. Duke likely won’t enter the season as any sort of prohibitive favorite, nor will they bring back a roster with a lot of experience and cohesion. Fortunately, the protocols for off-season practice will be returning to normal this summer, and the team will have plenty of time to try and gel together before the season officially starts in November.

The news of Coach K’s retirement was inevitable, but the news of Scheyer as the alleged coach-in-waiting is a very interesting decision if it holds true. To start, he has zero head coaching experience and will be immediately thrust into the role at one of the five biggest programs in the country. He’s said all the right things as an assistant and is unquestionably a more inspiring choice than the rest of Krzyzewski’s coaching tree, but this hire could go any which way and nobody would be surprised. While Duke fans, including myself, may have dreamed of the world where Brad Stevens stepped in as the eventual successor, the fact of the matter is that Coach K had enough power within the program to ensure that there would not even be any consideration of an outside hire. While Duke did recently name a new athletic director, this is Krzyzewski’s choice, plain and simple. Out of all the realistic options, Scheyer is the one who doesn’t carry the baggage of a failed attempt to run his own program, and that was good enough to get the job.

After learning under an all-time great, Jon Scheyer will get his chance to lead the Duke program. (Source: Ball Durham)

What Scheyer does have going for him is an excellent reputation on the recruiting trail. He was heavily involved with some of Duke’s biggest recruits in recent years, including Zion Williamson and Jayson Tatum. Still, it will be interesting to see just how much drop-off there will be in the program’s ability to reel in big names without the allure of playing for an all-time great coach. Another big question is just how clean will the slate be when Scheyer eventually takes over? In the world of immediate eligibility for one-time transfers, it’s not completely unreasonable to think that Duke's 2022-23 roster may not return a single rotation player from the 2021-22 season. Coach K's farewell tour will be exciting, but it's hard to not imagine a rebuilding period immediately following it.

While Jon won a championship on a Duke team that featured five upperclassmen in the starting lineup, he’s only ever been on the coaching staff for what could be defined as the era where Duke fully embraced the “one-and-done” movement. With full program control, it’ll be very interesting to see which side of the spectrum he prefers. While the sport has seemed to shift away from roster constructions such as the 2010 Blue Devils, there are still plenty of programs who manage to “get old and stay old”, as former Duke assistant Mike Brey has termed it. Although Coach K has obviously shifted away from that in recent years, the Duke program was built on a 1982 recruiting class that stuck around for four seasons and came one game away from a national championship. The early recruiting classes for Scheyer will be fundamental in establishing his culture for the program, and also pivotal in laying the groundwork for continued success.

It’s no secret that the Save Duke Basketball blog has been pushing for Coach K's retirement for some time. It’s encouraging to see that both Krzyzewski and Duke have decided to rip the band-aid off quickly after a one-year farewell tour, rather than letting him continue to coach even further into his decrepitude. With that said, as the original blog post of Save Duke Basketball mentioned, there is no Duke Basketball as we know it today without Mike Krzyzewski. He has absolutely built the program into a college basketball juggernaut, and for that he deserves to be right in the discussion of the greatest coach of all time, regardless of level or sport. It’s easy to look at the program’s failures since the 2015 title or even nitpick the missed opportunities, i.e. 1999, that came in the peak Duke years, but to win five national championships over the course of his tenure is an outstanding accomplishment that few coaches have been able to match.

So, you may now be asking yourself, “Has Duke Basketball been saved?” Yes, the original purpose of this blog was to expose the shortcomings of the program over the past half-decade, but while Coach K may be moving on after the season, his imprint on the program will remain as long as any of his former players are roaming the sidelines. With Scheyer being the hand-chosen successor, it’ll be interesting to see just how far he strays away from the philosophies, mannerisms, etc. of his mentor. Until we find out what the direction is, the answer is still no. There’s a lot to speculate on with the future of the Duke program, but the idea of drastic change is something that has only been seen lately from a year-to-year roster standpoint. Whether it works out for Scheyer or not is something we won’t know for a few years now, but trust me, the change is good.

#13: Duke Transfer Roundup 2021

With the off-season news coming in at a slower rate than it was just a month ago, I thought it’d be a good opportunity to take a look back at Duke’s outgoing transfers and what to expect from them in the 2021-22 season. While we covered each roster move in detail in the real time, none of the players declared their new team right away, and thus we weren’t able to project anything based off their landing spot. With all four of the former Blue Devils’ destinations secured, let’s take a look at what we can anticipate from them.

Jaemyn Brakefield: Mississippi

Following an inconsistent freshman season at Duke, Brakefield decided to return to his home state of Mississippi to continue his collegiate career. In 2020-21, Ole Miss went 16-12, including ten wins in the SEC, but failed to qualify for the NCAA Tournament. Like most programs, they’ve had their fair share of player movement this off-season. With the dust mostly settled, there appears to be an opportunity for Brakefield to play a key role immediately for the Rebels. Two frontcourt starters from last season, Romello White and KJ Buffen, won’t be returning to Oxford. The same goes for Khadim Sy, a starter for Ole Miss in the 2019-20 season who battled knee injuries throughout the 2020-21 campaign. There are also losses in the backcourt, including last season’s leading scorer, Devontae Shuler, who’ll be pursuing professional opportunities along with White.

The only rotational pieces that are returning in the frontcourt are Robert Allen, who started 8 games last season after transferring from Samford, and Sammy Hunter, a 6’9” forward who hasn’t made much of an impact in his two seasons for the Rebels. Duke fans may remember Miami center Nysier Brooks, who’ll be joining Brakefield in transferring to Ole Miss. The two figure to have a great shot of coming in and starting immediately for head coach Kermit Davis. It’s unlikely Ole Miss will contend for a conference championship in 2021-22, as the SEC looks to be very strong yet again. However, a tournament berth isn’t out of the conversation, and Brakefield will get plenty of chances to go head-to-head with the plethora of talented forwards in the conference. With the disappointment of his first year behind him, Jaemyn will have a great chance in Oxford to play a hefty amount of minutes – something he wouldn’t have done at Duke this year – and try to work his way back onto the radar of NBA scouts. 

Original coverage of transfer: https://savedukebasketball.blogspot.com/2021/03/2-jaemyn-brakefield-enters-transfer.html

Jordan Goldwire: Oklahoma

After their run in the NCAA Tournament was halted by the eventual runners-up Gonzaga Bulldogs, the Oklahoma program saw an upheaval that few teams could match this off-season. Just a few days after the loss, head coach Lon Kruger announced his retirement, and seven of the ten players who logged at least 100 minutes in the 2020-21 season would follow him soon after. The biggest hole was left at point guard by senior Austin Reaves, the proverbial heart and soul of the team who declared for the NBA draft. Umoja Gibson and Elijah Harkless, both 2020 transfers from smaller schools, were the only backcourt players returning, and neither had previously shown the ability to play lead guard for a power conference team. There were plenty of minutes to go around in the projected rotation of new coach Porter Moser. 

Insert Jordan Goldwire, who, after four years of playing the role of defensive specialist, is yearning for the chance to run a team. Such a chance he never would’ve gotten under Mike Krzyzewski. Don’t get me wrong, Coach K loved Jordan and would’ve found ways to get him on the floor plenty during the 2021-22 season. But Jordan wanted be the lead guard, and that simply wasn’t in Duke’s plans. Goldwire isn’t the only incoming transfer for the Sooners; he’ll be joined by brothers Tanner and Jacob Groves of Eastern Washington as well as SMU’s Ethan Chargois. Most of the Sooners’ rotation will be made up of guys who scored double digit points per game at lower levels, but they won’t have a single guy who’s done it at such a level as the Big 12. The success of the team will be largely predicated on players, including Goldwire, taking on a bigger portion of offensive responsibilities than they saw last season. Having watched Jordan for four years, it’ll certainly be interesting to see whether or not he’s capable of it. 

Original coverage of transfer: https://savedukebasketball.blogspot.com/2021/03/3-jordan-goldwire-also-enters-transfer.html

Patrick Tapé: San Francisco

If 45 minutes of the Patrick Tapé Experience weren’t enough for you for Duke, you’ll get one last chance to watch him play this upcoming season. You’d better be ready to set the DVR to record those late Pacific time tip-offs, as he’ll be finishing out his collegiate career at the University of San Francisco of the West Coast Conference. Yes, that means you’ll get to watch him play at least one game against the likely preseason #1 team, the Gonzaga Bulldogs. But Gonzaga isn’t the only capable team in the conference, as the WCC will try to send multiple teams to the NCAA Tournament for the third time in the last four years.

The Dons won’t be the favorite to lock down that second spot, but don’t rule them out entirely. While their 11-14 record in 2020-21 was disappointing, they did manage to knock off the Virginia Cavaliers early in the season and should return most of their roster. Tapé will actually be joined in San Francisco by his former Columbia teammate, Gabe Stefanini, who has played just 45 less minutes than Patrick since the 2018-19 season. Also in the fold for the Dons are San Diego’s Yauhen Massalski and Nevada’s Zane Meeks, both of whom should provide front court depth. Last season’s leading scorer, Jamaree Bouyea, has been linked with the NBA draft process, but if he stays, San Francisco will have a real chance to contend for an NCAA Tournament berth in 2021-22. 

Original coverage of transfer: https://savedukebasketball.blogspot.com/2021/03/4-patrick-tape-re-enters-transfer-portal.html

Henry Coleman III: Texas A&M

The first two years of Buzz Williams’ tenure at Texas A&M haven’t gone as smoothly as the Aggie faithful would’ve hoped, and there’s plenty of reason to believe year three won’t be much better. After racking up just two conference wins in the COVID-shortened season, eight different Aggies entered their name into the transfer portal. If Williams is going to earn his $24 million contract, he’ll have to do so by building the program back from the ground up. Part of that foundation was the addition of Duke’s Henry Coleman III, whose transfer caught a lot of Duke fans off guard, including myself. While Henry will be missed in Durham, there’s no doubt his opportunity to play is much greater in College Station.

Despite the eight transfers, A&M’s cupboard of returning players isn’t completely bare – they’ll return three of their top six scorers from a season ago. Fortunately for Coleman’s prospects of immediate playing time, all of the returns come in the backcourt. Similar to Brakefield’s situation at Ole Miss, the Aggies’ frontcourt rotation projects to be mostly newcomers at the moment, giving Henry a great opportunity to contribute right away. His biggest competition for minutes appears to be Arkansas transfer Ethan Henderson, Connecticut transfer Javonte Brown, and freshman Ashton Smith. While Blue Devil fans will certainly feel a sense of regret if Coleman is able to blossom away from Durham, we should find out pretty soon just what type of player he can be given a real chance. 

Original coverage of transfer: https://savedukebasketball.blogspot.com/2021/04/10-henry-coleman-iii-enters-transfer.html