#7: Matthew Hurt declares for NBA Draft

Best wishes to our guy @HurtMatthew! A walking bucket headed to the league. pic.twitter.com/bk6qmiAWfM

— Duke Men’s Basketball (@DukeMBB) April 14, 2021

It had been a little too quiet on the news front regarding Duke’s off-season roster turnover, but on Wednesday afternoon, it was finally confirmed that Matthew Hurt would be leaving Duke and moving onto the NBA. This headline should come as a surprise to no one, as Hurt was a consensus top fifteen recruit in 2019 who never intended to spend more than one season in college to begin with. After an up-and-down freshman campaign, Hurt needed to return to college if he hoped to ever hear his name called in the NBA Draft. As a sophomore, Hurt had about as good of an offensive season as he could’ve hoped and played his way back onto the NBA radar, albeit as a potential second round pick.

While Hurt improved in a lot of areas from year one to year two, the biggest difference between Hurt’s two seasons at Duke was the twenty pounds he added in the off-season. In the last ten games of the 2019-20 season, Hurt averaged just 6.4 points in 15.7 minutes per game. Even his shooting tailed off dramatically (40.8% from the field, 32.0% from three) and he lost most of his minutes to the revelation that was redshirt senior Justin Robinson. Despite his advanced skillset, he wasn’t physically ready to be a star at the collegiate level. The extra weight allowed Hurt to withstand the wear and tear of the full season and do what he does best: shoot the basketball. While the numbers may not even do his shooting clips this season justice, let’s give it a shot:

Now that Matthew Hurt is done this season: what a ridiculous shooting display

44 3P%, 63.5 2P%, 65 eFG% (296 FGA)

- post-ups: 1.37 ppp, 71 FG% (No. 1 nationally, 50+ poss)
- catch-and-shoot: 61 eFG%
- off-dribble: 55 eFG%
- 75 FG% rim, 57 FG% long 2PA https://t.co/xY3moAQhna

— Brian Geisinger (@bgeis_bird) March 11, 2021

Simply put, his numbers were absolutely absurd. According to Sports-Reference, he’s one of only four players since 1992-93 to score at least 18 points per game and hit at least 50 threes while shooting 55% or better from the field and 40% or better from three. He was the second-most efficient offensive player in college basketball this season, per Synergy Sports. The team was +4.97 points per possessions better per 100 possessions with him on the court, second on the team behind only Jeremy Roach. The offensive end will have to be Hurt’s calling card at the next level as well. He didn’t often stretch his range out as far as the NBA three-point line this season, but there should be little doubt a shooter of his ability can do so. With shooting and spacing becoming more valuable every passing season in the NBA, Hurt is certain to get opportunities to carve out a role at the next level.

In spite of all the positives, Hurt was still a flawed player in his prodigious sophomore season on the defensive end. Duke’s defense was almost two full points better with Hurt off the floor than it was with him on. The roster construction didn’t help him any defensively; he played approximately 500 minutes this season without a center on the court next to him. As you could expect, these units also struggled to rebound missed shots by the opponent. Hurt did improve as a rebounder in his second season, but he still left a lot to be desired. Units the paired Hurt with Mark Williams, the best rebounder and rim protector on the team, improved in both areas and even were a slight net positive defensively compared to Duke’s usual productivity, but they still gave up almost 102.6 points per 100 possessions. Any concerns about Matt’s potential to stick in the NBA will start at this end of the court. He can’t be asked to play the center with his lack of rim protection, so he’s going to have to develop into a guy who can defend NBA forwards if he ever wants to see consistent time.

As a sophomore, Hurt posted arguably the best shooting season in program history. Source: The Fayetteville Observer

Projecting ahead for Duke, Hurt’s offensive prowess will certainly be missed. He was the only player on the 2020-21 roster that could be counted on to score consistently, specifically in late clock situations, and Duke has no immediate answer to replace him. As it currently stands, Duke won't return a single player who's ever averaged over 10 points per game before at the collegiate level, which means they'll once again be counting on a large percentage of their points to come via incoming freshmen. With that said, a team without his defensive limitations should be able to progress greatly on the end where they need to see improvement the most. When Hurt was guarding in the post, opposing teams would attack him. When Hurt was guarding on the perimeter, opposing teams would hunt for a switch to try and drive at him. He fouled out of four games in the shortened season and came one foul away in seven more. Replacing Hurt in the lineup with Paolo Banchero, a prospect touted as a versatile defender, should make a big difference next season defensively.

With his career at Duke at a close, the retrospective on Hurt is a mixed bag, though many of the reasons were out of his control. On one hand, Hurt just turned in arguably the greatest shooting season in program history. While he didn’t have nearly the volume of somebody like J.J. Redick, his efficiency (65.1 eFG%) is unmatched by anybody who’s ever shot more than 100 threes in a season for the Blue Devils – the only other Duke player with an eFG% above 60% on such volume since 1992-93 is Andre Dawkins. On the other hand, Hurt is the first Blue Devil since Mike Krzyzewski first took over the program to play two full seasons in Durham and not make the NCAA Tournament. While coronavirus is mostly to blame for that, it’s hard to consider his Duke legacy when he doesn’t have any notable postseason moments to think back on. He also scored just 21 points in four career games against North Carolina, failing to leave any sort of imprint on the rivalry. With all that said, Duke fans were fortunate to watch Matt Hurt in a Duke uniform this season at all, let alone the shooting exhibition he put on. We’re wishing him nothing but the best of luck as he tries to add his name to the long list of former Blue Devils on an NBA roster next season.