It’s an exciting time for Duke Basketball! Summer workouts have already begun in Durham, and the team has leaked a fair share of videos to get the fan base excited about the team. The 2021 NBA Draft is also just around the corner, with three former Blue Devils hoping to hear their names called. There will be plenty of time to talk about the 2021-22 Duke team leading up to the start of the season, so I figured it would be a good time to look at Duke’s draft hopefuls and where to expect their names to be called on June 29th:
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| Source: Last Word on Sports |
Jalen Johnson
Because he left the program a month or so before the end of Duke’s season, Johnson is a guy we’ve hardly covered at Save Duke Basketball. His freshman season at Duke may have been the most tumultuous of any we’ve seen in the one-and-done era, culminating in a mid-February decision to opt out for the remainder of the season. While the entire program supported his decision (specifically by playing their best basketball of the season after he left), the jury is still out on whether it will positively or negatively impact where he hears his name called in the draft.
There’s a lot to like about Johnson as a prospect. He’s incredibly gifted athletically and has great playmaking skills for a player his size. His wingspan measured over 7’0” at the NBA combine, which should allow him to be disruptive on the defensive end with consistent effort. But there are still big holes in his game that will need to be smoothed over. He does not have a jumper that would instill confidence in anybody, he’s far too careless with the basketball, and the fact that we had to throw in a caveat of “with consistent effort” about his defense should imply said effort wasn’t always on display during his time in Durham.
The on-court flaws notwithstanding, perhaps the biggest question mark about Johnson has to do with what's between the ears. Leaving Duke a month before the season ended was one thing, but this is a young man who also left IMG Academy the year before without playing a game. Whether or not there's any connective tissue between those two events is something I can't speak on, but Jalen will have to hope that NBA front offices don't think so.
When it comes to the status of Johnson's draft stock, it all depends on who you ask. There are some pundits out there that still see him as a lottery talent, while others have his stock as low as the later picks of the first round. A first-round pick on Jalen is certainly a risk, but some teams are more equipped to take that chance than others. If he lands in the right system that can properly develop him and work the kinks out of his game, he’ll have a good chance to prove why he was so highly touted coming out of high school.
Projection: Mid-first round pick
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| Source: Ball Durham |
Matthew Hurt
There really isn’t a whole lot of news to break regarding Matthew Hurt as a draft prospect. Whoever ends up with the Minnesota native should know exactly what they’re going to get: a lights-out shooter from all spots on the court with an incredibly limited athletic profile, leading to severe defensive limitations. Luckily for Hurt, shooting is the most in-demand skill in the NBA right now, and could be his ticket to a roster spot and a guaranteed contract when the 2021-22 season begins.
Unfortunately for Hurt’s chances, he didn’t do much at the NBA combine to help himself. He had the second-highest body fat percentage (15.2%) of all players who tested and did not perform well in the agility drills. This specifically damaged Hurt’s draft stock because he failed to prove that he has the physical tools to defend 4’s at the NBA level. If a team takes a chance on him in the draft, it’s despite this physical deficiencies, and a glowing review of just how well he can shoot the ball.
A recent example of a player who had similar physical limitations, albeit playing a different position, is the Miami Heat’s Duncan Robinson. Robinson had a good reputation as a spot-up shooter coming out of Michigan, but had to develop the ability to hit shots on the move with little air space. With Hurt, the calculus is a bit different at power forward, but we saw at Duke that he could get his shot off against tight contests, a skill that NBA teams will value. If he continues to shoot the ball well in individual workouts, he has a chance of hearing his name called next Thursday.
Projection: Second-round pick
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| Source: Getty Images |
DJ Steward
Steward’s decision to declare for the draft without the possibility of returning to college puzzled many, and it may end up proving very costly. After a dreadful performance at the NBA combine, Steward’s likelihood of hearing his name called on July 29th seems very low. He measured in shorter than 6’1” without shoes on and just 162.2 pounds, not exactly the type of build you’d prefer out of a combo guard with unproven point guard skills. On top of this, he struggled mightily in the 5-on-5 scrimmages. According to ESPN’s Jonathan Givony, NBA teams unanimously agreed that Steward would benefit from returning to Duke for a sophomore season.
When the news broke of his intention to leave Duke, we broke down examples of other players who boosted the trajectory of their NBA stock with strong sophomore seasons that Steward could have followed in the footsteps of. With that option officially off the table, Steward will now have an uphill battle to find himself on an NBA roster at the start of the 2021-22 season. It’s hard not imagining his lack of size being a deterrent to those chances, but the NBA is an offense-first league and Steward knows a thing or two about putting the ball in the basket.
Luckily for DJ, going undrafted would not be a death sentence to his career. There are plenty of examples of guys currently in the league who took that same path, including Fred VanVleet, Christian Wood, and even Duke’s own Seth Curry. If he does indeed go unselected, the most likely next step for Steward will be signing a two-way contract with a team in the days following the draft. He’d then have the Summer League and training camp to try and improve upon his perception following the combine, with hopes of converting that contract into a standard one with a guaranteed roster spot. Still, that's an incredibly hard road to take, which highlights just how seemingly bad the decision Steward made to not leave his options open was.
Projection: Undrafted
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Unfortunately for Duke, after a disappointing 2020-21 campaign, it looks to be an underwhelming outgoing professional class as well. If Johnson doesn't hear his name called in the first fourteen picks, it will be the second year in a row that Duke would fail to have a player selected in the lottery. Luckily for the program and fans alike, this streak is almost certain to end after just two seasons, as the 2021-22 roster looks to have multiple potential lottery picks in tow.
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