Wednesday, November 10, 2021

#17: Duke 79, Kentucky 71

With all the fanfare surrounding Mike Krzyzewski’s final season leading up to it, it was almost possible to forget that Duke Basketball had a game to play on Tuesday night. While the pomp and circumstance won’t slow down anytime soon, the Blue Devils proved to the nation just how good they can be with a 79-71 victory over the #10 Kentucky Wildcats in the 11th edition of the Champions Classic. While it wasn’t the sexiest win, Duke looked the better team throughout and was able to win what will most likely be Coach K’s final game in Madison Square Garden. We’re still over four months away from a bracket even being unveiled, but this Duke team looked the part of a Final Four contender in their first game. 

While it was certainly a team effort, Duke was led by two members of the 2021 freshmen class, Paolo Banchero and Trevor Keels – both of whom scored big baskets down the stretch to seal the victory. There was a lot of hype surrounding Banchero’s collegiate debut, and he certainly delivered with 22 points and 7 rebounds, but it was Keels who led the Blue Devils in scoring with 25 points on 10-18 from the field. Keels looked every bit of his 221-pound billing and was able to physically assert his will on the overmatched guards of Kentucky on multiple occasions. While he was certainly on the NBA radar before last night’s win, there’s no doubt a performance on such a big stage only helped his stock.

Despite never trailing in the first half, Duke conceded the lead early in the second half behind a hot shooting start from the Wildcats. It was around this time that several Blue Devil players, including both Banchero and Keels, began to fall victim to cramping issues that forced them out of the game for short periods of time. However, Duke countered Kentucky’s push with a 24-8 extended run that saw their lead balloon to 15 points with just over nine minutes to play. After returning to the game, Banchero punctuated Duke’s lead with back-to-back midrange jumpers that brought the Duke supporters to their feet.

But the Wildcats clawed their way back into the game once more with 11 unanswered points, and had a look from three by Kellen Grady that would’ve cut the deficit to just one. Consecutive baskets from Keels and Banchero, plus an and-one free throw for the latter, widened Duke’s lead to nine before the under-4:00 media timeout, and the Blue Devils never looked back. Wendell Moore’s driving layup with 42 seconds left was the final stamp on Duke’s first win of the season, as the program improved to 9-4 all-time in the Champions Classic.

Trevor Keels shined on both sides of the ball in his Duke debut. (Source: GoDuke)

One of the biggest storylines throughout the game was the dominance of Kentucky’s Oscar Tshiebwe on the offensive glass. While sophomore center Mark Williams had his moments both offensively and defensively in this one, it was clear from the get-go that he was no match for the West Virginia transfer on the boards. The insertion of graduate transfer Theo John provided Duke with some more physicality against the nation's top offensive rebounder in 2019-20, but Tshiebwe still had his way, finishing the night with 12 offensive rebounds and 19 total. Kentucky as a team grabbed 19 offensive rebounds in the game, a number far too many for a team as big and athletic as Duke to give up. 

While Williams’ first half foul trouble would play a minor part in the decision, it would surprise many that it was John who played the majority of the minutes at center. Duke’s defense was approximately 28.31 points per 100 possessions better with John on the court than Williams last night, and the offense saw an uptick of 8.55 points per 100 possessions as well. While per possession statistics are incredible volatile in one-game samples, the Blue Devils were a better team last night with John on the court. Williams’ expectations were very high following his torrid finish to last season, but perhaps the playing time determination between he and the former Marquette Golden Eagle will simply be matchup-dependent rather than a traditional starter/backup allotment. The fight for playing time between the two is certainly something to monitor throughout the season.

Perhaps the most encouraging sign from last night was the improvement of Duke’s perimeter defense from a season ago. The team managed to hold Kentucky’s four main guards to 14/44 (31.8%) from the field over the course of the game and forced Georgia transfer Sahvir Wheeler into 7 turnovers. This stout defensive performance was also mostly without heralded freshman AJ Griffin, whose minutes were limited from what we can assume is residue from the knee injury last month. After only playing two minutes in the first half, Griffin did see more action in the second while three of the starters battled cramps and was a part of the early run in the second half that saw Duke take control of the game.

In the lengthy season preview post, we detailed three keys for the Blue Devils’ season. The first was Paolo Banchero, and he answered just how good he can be in the season opener. The second had to do with the point guard play. Jeremy Roach played almost the entire game for the Blue Devils, and while he didn’t look much different than the up-and-down freshman from last season, Duke’s offense struggled in the six possessions they played without him on the court. The team only had seven assists on the night, including just one from Roach, and was incredibly reliant on isolation production from its two leading scorers. Whether it be Roach, Moore, or even Keels, somebody will have to step up as the primary facilitator for this team to reach its ceiling. The final key was the team’s three-point shooting, and they didn’t answer any questions regarding that after shooting just 1/13 (7.7%) from beyond the arc last night.

While there was plenty of room for improvement in the performance, it’s hard not to be excited about the Blue Devils after one game. The move of the Champions Classic to the first game of the season meant these four elite programs would be thrown into the deep end on a big stage before even getting their feet wet. Duke as a program is now 3-0 in that scenario, and it’s fair to ask if the preseason #9 ranking was an unfair punishment for last year’s mediocrity. After all, Duke lost over half their minutes/scoring production from last season and brought in better players to replace it. But they’ll have plenty of chances to prove the voters wrong, including a date with current #1 Gonzaga looming near the end of the month. Directly ahead is a two-game slate this weekend against Army and Campbell, both of whom also won their first game last night.

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