#17: Duke 79, Kentucky 71

With all the fanfare surrounding Mike Krzyzewski’s final season leading up to it, it was almost possible to forget that Duke Basketball had a game to play on Tuesday night. While the pomp and circumstance won’t slow down anytime soon, the Blue Devils proved to the nation just how good they can be with a 79-71 victory over the #10 Kentucky Wildcats in the 11th edition of the Champions Classic. While it wasn’t the sexiest win, Duke looked the better team throughout and was able to win what will most likely be Coach K’s final game in Madison Square Garden. We’re still over four months away from a bracket even being unveiled, but this Duke team looked the part of a Final Four contender in their first game. 

While it was certainly a team effort, Duke was led by two members of the 2021 freshmen class, Paolo Banchero and Trevor Keels – both of whom scored big baskets down the stretch to seal the victory. There was a lot of hype surrounding Banchero’s collegiate debut, and he certainly delivered with 22 points and 7 rebounds, but it was Keels who led the Blue Devils in scoring with 25 points on 10-18 from the field. Keels looked every bit of his 221-pound billing and was able to physically assert his will on the overmatched guards of Kentucky on multiple occasions. While he was certainly on the NBA radar before last night’s win, there’s no doubt a performance on such a big stage only helped his stock.

No prospect improved his draft stock more than 6-5 freshman guard Trevor Keels last night. The powerful paint attacks were clear, but I loved the poise/passing & defense. Put the clamps on TyTy Washington from the jump. Rises when the lights get bright. Best player on the floor. pic.twitter.com/J8UhhJw330

— Mike Schmitz (@Mike_Schmitz) November 10, 2021

Despite never trailing in the first half, Duke conceded the lead early in the second half behind a hot shooting start from the Wildcats. It was around this time that several Blue Devil players, including both Banchero and Keels, began to fall victim to cramping issues that forced them out of the game for short periods of time. However, Duke countered Kentucky’s push with a 24-8 extended run that saw their lead balloon to 15 points with just over nine minutes to play. After returning to the game, Banchero punctuated Duke’s lead with back-to-back midrange jumpers that brought the Duke supporters to their feet.

But the Wildcats clawed their way back into the game once more with 11 unanswered points, and had a look from three by Kellen Grady that would’ve cut the deficit to just one. Consecutive baskets from Keels and Banchero, plus an and-one free throw for the latter, widened Duke’s lead to nine before the under-4:00 media timeout, and the Blue Devils never looked back. Wendell Moore’s driving layup with 42 seconds left was the final stamp on Duke’s first win of the season, as the program improved to 9-4 all-time in the Champions Classic.

Trevor Keels shined on both sides of the ball in his Duke debut. (Source: GoDuke)

One of the biggest storylines throughout the game was the dominance of Kentucky’s Oscar Tshiebwe on the offensive glass. While sophomore center Mark Williams had his moments both offensively and defensively in this one, it was clear from the get-go that he was no match for the West Virginia transfer on the boards. The insertion of graduate transfer Theo John provided Duke with some more physicality against the nation's top offensive rebounder in 2019-20, but Tshiebwe still had his way, finishing the night with 12 offensive rebounds and 19 total. Kentucky as a team grabbed 19 offensive rebounds in the game, a number far too many for a team as big and athletic as Duke to give up. 

While Williams’ first half foul trouble would play a minor part in the decision, it would surprise many that it was John who played the majority of the minutes at center. Duke’s defense was approximately 28.31 points per 100 possessions better with John on the court than Williams last night, and the offense saw an uptick of 8.55 points per 100 possessions as well. While per possession statistics are incredible volatile in one-game samples, the Blue Devils were a better team last night with John on the court. Williams’ expectations were very high following his torrid finish to last season, but perhaps the playing time determination between he and the former Marquette Golden Eagle will simply be matchup-dependent rather than a traditional starter/backup allotment. The fight for playing time between the two is certainly something to monitor throughout the season.

Perhaps the most encouraging sign from last night was the improvement of Duke’s perimeter defense from a season ago. The team managed to hold Kentucky’s four main guards to 14/44 (31.8%) from the field over the course of the game and forced Georgia transfer Sahvir Wheeler into 7 turnovers. This stout defensive performance was also mostly without heralded freshman AJ Griffin, whose minutes were limited from what we can assume is residue from the knee injury last month. After only playing two minutes in the first half, Griffin did see more action in the second while three of the starters battled cramps and was a part of the early run in the second half that saw Duke take control of the game.

In the lengthy season preview post, we detailed three keys for the Blue Devils’ season. The first was Paolo Banchero, and he answered just how good he can be in the season opener. The second had to do with the point guard play. Jeremy Roach played almost the entire game for the Blue Devils, and while he didn’t look much different than the up-and-down freshman from last season, Duke’s offense struggled in the six possessions they played without him on the court. The team only had seven assists on the night, including just one from Roach, and was incredibly reliant on isolation production from its two leading scorers. Whether it be Roach, Moore, or even Keels, somebody will have to step up as the primary facilitator for this team to reach its ceiling. The final key was the team’s three-point shooting, and they didn’t answer any questions regarding that after shooting just 1/13 (7.7%) from beyond the arc last night.

While there was plenty of room for improvement in the performance, it’s hard not to be excited about the Blue Devils after one game. The move of the Champions Classic to the first game of the season meant these four elite programs would be thrown into the deep end on a big stage before even getting their feet wet. Duke as a program is now 3-0 in that scenario, and it’s fair to ask if the preseason #9 ranking was an unfair punishment for last year’s mediocrity. After all, Duke lost over half their minutes/scoring production from last season and brought in better players to replace it. But they’ll have plenty of chances to prove the voters wrong, including a date with current #1 Gonzaga looming near the end of the month. Directly ahead is a two-game slate this weekend against Army and Campbell, both of whom also won their first game last night.

#16: 2021-22 Duke Blue Devils Season Preview

The calendar has officially turned to November, which means the college basketball season is right around the corner. With Mike Krzyzewski’s coaching career coming to an end at the conclusion of this season, Duke fans should need no explanation of the importance and urgency around the program this year. But for this team to send the legendary coach off with one last championship, they’ll have plenty of work to do. While Duke has one of their most talented teams of recent memory in tow, multiple other schools boast strong rosters this season as well. Most preseason prognostications have Duke slated around the 9-10 range, which may disappoint some Blue Devil fans, but this is more to do with the strength of college basketball than it is any slight of this year’s Duke team. On the bright side, the 2009-10 championship team was ranked around the same position before the season began. This is a team that is very capable of being the last one standing in April. Save Duke Basketball is back after a long offseason to break it all down!

Note: All pictures from GoDuke unless otherwise noted.

Returning Players:

This season, Duke returns 40.1% of minutes played and 37.1% of points scored from the 2020-21 team that failed to qualify for the NCAA Tournament. While that may not seem like a substantial number – obviously, other preseason contenders have higher numbers – 37.1% of points scored is the highest number the Blue Devils have returned since the 2016-17 team that was the consensus preseason #1 team. No one in this year’s returning crop has the stature of a Grayson Allen or a Luke Kennard, or even the experience of an Amile Jefferson or a Matt Jones. Hell, even counting the graduate transfers, the members of this roster have a combined 24 minutes of NCAA Tournament experience between them. But these are the guys that will matter in March. You can't win a championship with just a slew of young freshmen and no upperclassmen to complement them. These four returnees will all need to take a leap forward for Duke to reach its ceiling as a team.

F Wendell Moore

2020-21 Stats: 9.7 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 2.7 APG

While Moore’s sophomore season still contained plenty of frustrating moments for Duke fans, there was notable improvement from his freshman year that shouldn’t be taken lightly. After an abysmal four-game stretch in December where he scored a combined six points, he matched a career high of 25 points against Boston College in a game Duke would’ve lost had he scored any less. Wendell then went on to average 11.3 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 3.1 assists the remainder of the season. His three-point shot improved immensely both in accuracy (21.1% to 30.1%) and in volume (1.3 attempts per 40 minutes to 4.4), and his free throw percentage (84.8% as a sophomore) would indicate that there’s still room for improvement from behind the arc as well. His turnover rate dropped from 24.7% to 17.4%, but he still needs to be more careful with the ball in his hands. Duke will rely on him as a ballhandler and playmaker yet again in 2021-22, and he may even see significant playing time at point guard.

Despite all these positives, there were plenty of negatives for Moore last season as well. Even if you remove the first five games of the season from consideration, Duke was still a better team with Moore on the bench last season, both offensively and defensively. The latter may come as a surprise as he’s regarded as one of Duke’s better defensive options on the perimeter, but Duke was roughly four points better defensively per 100 possessions with him on the bench, and that’s tough to ignore. Now entering his third season in Durham, Moore is going to be relied upon heavily in the backcourt again. He was recently named a team captain and he’s been voted Preseason All-ACC Second Team for the second consecutive season. With all the chaos of last season, it’s easy to forgive Moore for not making the leap that many expected as a sophomore, but now it really counts. Wendell is one of the biggest X-factors of this year’s Duke team, and whether he ascends as an upperclassman will play a big part in shaping the 2021-22 Blue Devils.

G Jeremy Roach

2020-21 Stats: 8.7 PPG, 2.2 RPG, 2.8 APG

Roach was handed the keys to the Duke offense in his freshman season, and to say the results were disappointing would be an understatement. His jump shot was maddeningly inconsistent, his distribution left much to be desired, he turned the ball over on almost 20% of his offensive possessions, and he was by far the team’s worst perimeter defender. Consistency was one of his biggest issues. After a six-game stretch where he averaged 14.0 points per game in December/January, he followed it up with two consecutive scoreless outings. In the late season three-game losing streak that doomed Duke’s at-large NCAA tournament hopes, Roach averaged just 5.3 points and 2.0 assists per game on 33.3% shooting. The on-off offensive numbers for the entire season were very favorable towards him considering he was mostly juxtaposed with the offensively-challenged Jordan Goldwire, but the eye test told the story of somebody who really struggled in his first season of college basketball. Such is the life of a freshman point guard in a power conference that isn’t a slam dunk pro prospect.

With a full year under his belt, the Blue Devils are counting on Roach to take a major step forward this season. For all his struggles and inconsistencies last season, he started 18 of 24 games and Coach K never pulled him out of the rotation entirely. He was named to the 2022 Bob Cousy Award (best point guard in America) watch list and he’ll have to play near that level for Duke to be as good as the most ambitious predictors could hope. He’s reuniting with his high school teammate, Trevor Keels, this season, which should give Roach an extra level of comfort running the offensive this season. Between he and Moore, Duke’s point guard play is the team’s biggest question mark heading into the 2021-22 campaign. If neither can seize the position and improve upon one of the team’s biggest weaknesses from a year ago, this team has zero chance of sending Coach K off with a sixth championship trophy.

C Mark Williams

2020-21 Stats: 7.1 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 1.4 BPG

Of all Duke’s returnees, Williams undoubtedly is the one with the most excitement around him. After his permanent insertion into the starting lineup last season, Williams averaged 12.0 points. 6.5 rebounds, and 2.0 blocks per game in just 23.2 minutes over an 11-game sample size. He ended the season on his highest note, logging 23 points and 19 rebounds in the ACC Tournament tilt against Louisville before Duke’s season was abruptly ended due to COVID-19. Trust me, many took notice of Williams’ emergence towards the end of last season, but Mark decided to return to Durham for his sophomore year. He’ll have a good chance of being a first-round NBA draft pick in 2022, but that can wait. For right now, he joins Moore on the Preseason All-ACC Second Team, and he’ll have to prove that the impact he had on the team’s stretch run last season can be reproduced over an entire season.

Williams will be the defensive anchor of this year’s Duke team – there’s an argument that he may be Duke’s best shot blocker since Shelden Williams – and how Duke sets up their system around him will be a major storyline to monitor throughout the season. We have seen repeatedly how Coach K prefers his defenses to play, but that over-aggressive style will not work with a center like Williams on the court. He’s at his best when he’s around the rim blocking/altering shots, and Duke needs to play a style that will allow him to do so. In 2017-18, Duke’s defensive and season outlook changed when Krzyzewski switched to a 2-3 zone and allowed Wendell Carter to protect the rim. I’m not suggesting he goes full-Boeheim again this season, but he needs to allow Williams to do what he does best rather than dragging him away from the basket and doing the opposing offenses' jobs for them.

Offensively, Williams was efficient around the basket and helped create second chance opportunities for the Blue Devils, but he was still not a positive for Duke according to on-off splits. This often is the price to pay when you sacrifice floor spacing for defense, but it is worth nothing that his offensive impact was around neutral from the first North Carolina game (when he was inserted into the starting lineup permanently) onward. Improving his free throw percentage (53.3%) would only help matters for Williams, and a full off-season in the Duke strength and conditioning program should also go a long way. He only played 350 minutes last season, but the list of guys who played at least that many minutes with a player efficiency rating of over 30 is as follows: Zion Williamson, Vernon Carey Jr., Jahlil Okafor, Marvin Bagley III, and Mark Williams. That’s some good company to be in.

F Joey Baker

2020-21 Stats: 2.9 PPG, 1.2 RPG, 0.4 APG

Baker’s junior campaign was plagued by his inability to consistently hit perimeter jumpers, but the rest of his offensive game did him no favors either. His struggles resulted in very sporadic playing time, but he was one of the few positive impact defensive players in the rotation last year. While he may miss a defensive rotation from time to time, there’s no denying the energy and communication he brings onto the court, two things that are paramount for a great defensive unit. Now entering his senior season, Baker is a team captain and he’s going to be one of the main sources of leadership on the team this year. What role he’ll play in the rotation will again come down to whether his three-point shot is falling, but there will be games where the Blue Devils will need him to hit a couple. After such an up-and-down first three seasons, it’d be a welcome sight to see Baker get his vindication in what could be his final season in Durham.

Newcomers:

Once again, Duke has brought in a recruiting class that rivals the best in the country. Even as Coach K is ready to ride off into the sunset, it doesn’t appear that coach-in-waiting Jon Scheyer has any intentions of slowing down the recruiting roll Duke has been on for the past decade. For 2021, Duke is bringing in a four-man class, three of which who should be instant impact players on this year’s team. While Duke’s chances this season will be significantly impacted by those who return, the freshmen will once again be the center of attention. On top of that, the Blue Devils also welcome two graduate transfers who figure to play a role in the frontcourt. 

F Paolo Banchero

#1 PF/#4 Overall (ESPN), #1 PF/#2 Overall (247 Sports)

Simply put, Paolo Banchero is Duke’s best, and most-hyped, prospect since Zion Williamson. Everything about this kid points to him being an absolute beast at the college level and beyond. Standing 6’10” and 250 pounds, Banchero’s 41-inch vertical leap seems almost impossible for a player his size. That combination of size and athleticism is rarely seen, and he has the skill level to match it. He can score from all three levels, and even can bring the ball up the court. He will garner serious consideration for the #1 overall pick in the 2022 NBA Draft and will be Duke's best player in Coach K’s final season at the helm. According to Vegas Insider, Paolo has the second-shortest odds to win the 2022 Wooden Award behind Gonzaga’s Drew Timme, who Duke will square off against on November 26th in Las Vegas. If Banchero lives up to the hype, the sky is the limit for this year's team.

F AJ Griffin

#6 SF/#29 Overall (ESPN), #5 SF/#17 Overall (247 Sports)

The son of former NBA player Adrian Griffin, AJ projects to be next in the lengthy line of Duke one-and-done wings. Like Banchero, he has great athleticism with a 40-inch vertical, and all the savviness you would expect from the son of a former NBA player/current NBA assistant coach. He possesses good size for the position and currently projects as a lottery pick in the 2022 NBA Draft. He did receive unwelcome news a few weeks back about a knee sprain that was expected to sideline him indefinitely, but after playing in Saturday’s exhibition against Winston Salem State, it appears to be “all systems go” for Griffin to be ready for the start of the season. Duke will hope for him to play a similar role to Justise Winslow’s on the 2015 national championship team.

G Trevor Keels

#3 SG/#23 Overall (ESPN), #2 SG/#22 Overall (247 Sports)

At 6’4” and 221 pounds, Keels has all the size you would want for a shooting guard and then some. He’s a very physical player, but don’t let that take away from his skill level. He very well could be the best perimeter scorer on this Duke team, and all reports out of Duke’s practices are that he’s even better than originally advertised. Playing with his former high school teammate should only help Keels as he acclimates to the college game, something that should take him less time than the average prospect given his physical stature. While the professional career of DJ Steward isn’t off to the best start so far, Duke fans may end up just fine with the tradeoff for Keels, who committed just one day after Steward announced his intentions of leaving Durham after just one year.

In depth article on Keels’ commitment: Link

G Jaylen Blakes

#21 PG/#91 Overall (ESPN), #17 PG/#105 Overall (247 Sports)

Blakes was the final member of the class to commit to Duke, and while he doesn’t figure to have a major role on this year’s team, he still could wind up being an important piece. We mentioned earlier that both Wendell Moore and Jeremy Roach will split the lion’s share of time as the primary ball handler, but just how much we see of Blakes could depend on the improvement of those two in their ability to run the show. If he doesn’t feature prominently this season, his development is certainly something to monitor in the coming years.

In depth article on Blakes’ commitment: Link

F Theo John

2020-21 Stats: 8.0 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 1.2 APG

After playing four years at Marquette under former Duke player and coach Steve Wojciechowski, Theo John chose to exhaust his collegiate eligibility in Durham and chase a national championship. He’s incredibly gifted physically and will mostly serve as Mark Williams’ backup at center. His final season in Milwaukee was a bit of a mixed bag – he posted a career high in true shooting percentage but saw his rebounding rates plummet and posted the lowest block percentage of his career as well. In his four years at Marquette, he never displayed any semblance of offensive prowess. On a team that doesn’t lack for firepower in that department, Duke will need John to get back to what he did best at Marquette in years prior: being an enforcer.

F Bates Jones

2020-21 Stats: 2.6 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 0.8 APG

The brother of former Duke quarterback, Daniel Jones, Bates will play out his college career at Duke and provide depth in the front court. He’s mostly known for his ability to stretch the floor as a four; he hit as many three-point field goals as he did two-point field goals in his four years at Davidson. At the time of his commitment, Henry Coleman III was still on Duke’s projected roster for 2021-22, which left almost no minutes at the power forward spot to go around. While you’d figure the Blue Devils will go small a good amount, Jones could figure to see a modest amount of minutes spelling Paolo Banchero throughout the season with Coleman now unfortunately out of the picture.

In depth article on Jones’ and John’s commitment: Link

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As we conclude, I do want to separate fact from fiction with this year’s team. It’s around this time every season that people talk about how deep the Blue Devils’ roster is. I can almost assure you there will be a 7 to 8-man rotation by March, just like every other season. There’s also hope that Coach K will be his best self in his final season, birthed from the narrative that he’s no longer splitting his attention from the team with recruiting efforts. Believe me, Mike Krzyzewski is who he is at this point. He is decrepit and stubborn and will not change. Do not expect a different version of him this season than the one you’ve seen mismanage talented rosters for the past five years. For me, there are three main keys to the season that will determine just how good this team can be:

1. Can Paolo Banchero play at a National Player of the Year level?
2. Can Jeremy Roach and Wendell Moore solidify the point guard position?
3. Can the team consistently hit three-pointers?

If the team can answer yes to all three of these questions, then they absolutely have what it takes to cut down the nets in New Orleans. Fair or not, every Duke season is judged by whether or not a banner is hung in Cameron Indoor Stadium at the end of it. There will be a significant amount of added pressure from Coach K’s final season and all the fanfare and attention that will come along with it, but this team is strong and built to manage it. It's going to be a wild ride, but that's what makes college basketball so much fun.

#15: Duke 2021 NBA Draft prospect prognosis

It’s an exciting time for Duke Basketball! Summer workouts have already begun in Durham, and the team has leaked a fair share of videos to get the fan base excited about the team. The 2021 NBA Draft is also just around the corner, with three former Blue Devils hoping to hear their names called. There will be plenty of time to talk about the 2021-22 Duke team leading up to the start of the season, so I figured it would be a good time to look at Duke’s draft hopefuls and where to expect their names to be called on June 29th:

Source: Last Word on Sports

Jalen Johnson

Because he left the program a month or so before the end of Duke’s season, Johnson is a guy we’ve hardly covered at Save Duke Basketball. His freshman season at Duke may have been the most tumultuous of any we’ve seen in the one-and-done era, culminating in a mid-February decision to opt out for the remainder of the season. While the entire program supported his decision (specifically by playing their best basketball of the season after he left), the jury is still out on whether it will positively or negatively impact where he hears his name called in the draft.

There’s a lot to like about Johnson as a prospect. He’s incredibly gifted athletically and has great playmaking skills for a player his size. His wingspan measured over 7’0” at the NBA combine, which should allow him to be disruptive on the defensive end with consistent effort. But there are still big holes in his game that will need to be smoothed over. He does not have a jumper that would instill confidence in anybody, he’s far too careless with the basketball, and the fact that we had to throw in a caveat of “with consistent effort” about his defense should imply said effort wasn’t always on display during his time in Durham.

The on-court flaws notwithstanding, perhaps the biggest question mark about Johnson has to do with what's between the ears. Leaving Duke a month before the season ended was one thing, but this is a young man who also left IMG Academy the year before without playing a game. Whether or not there's any connective tissue between those two events is something I can't speak on, but Jalen will have to hope that NBA front offices don't think so. 

When it comes to the status of Johnson's draft stock, it all depends on who you ask. There are some pundits out there that still see him as a lottery talent, while others have his stock as low as the later picks of the first round. A first-round pick on Jalen is certainly a risk, but some teams are more equipped to take that chance than others. If he lands in the right system that can properly develop him and work the kinks out of his game, he’ll have a good chance to prove why he was so highly touted coming out of high school.

Projection: Mid-first round pick

Source: Ball Durham

Matthew Hurt

There really isn’t a whole lot of news to break regarding Matthew Hurt as a draft prospect. Whoever ends up with the Minnesota native should know exactly what they’re going to get: a lights-out shooter from all spots on the court with an incredibly limited athletic profile, leading to severe defensive limitations. Luckily for Hurt, shooting is the most in-demand skill in the NBA right now, and could be his ticket to a roster spot and a guaranteed contract when the 2021-22 season begins.

Unfortunately for Hurt’s chances, he didn’t do much at the NBA combine to help himself. He had the second-highest body fat percentage (15.2%) of all players who tested and did not perform well in the agility drills. This specifically damaged Hurt’s draft stock because he failed to prove that he has the physical tools to defend 4’s at the NBA level. If a team takes a chance on him in the draft, it’s despite this physical deficiencies, and a glowing review of just how well he can shoot the ball.

A recent example of a player who had similar physical limitations, albeit playing a different position, is the Miami Heat’s Duncan Robinson. Robinson had a good reputation as a spot-up shooter coming out of Michigan, but had to develop the ability to hit shots on the move with little air space. With Hurt, the calculus is a bit different at power forward, but we saw at Duke that he could get his shot off against tight contests, a skill that NBA teams will value. If he continues to shoot the ball well in individual workouts, he has a chance of hearing his name called next Thursday.

Projection: Second-round pick

Source: Getty Images

DJ Steward

Steward’s decision to declare for the draft without the possibility of returning to college puzzled many, and it may end up proving very costly. After a dreadful performance at the NBA combine, Steward’s likelihood of hearing his name called on July 29th seems very low. He measured in shorter than 6’1” without shoes on and just 162.2 pounds, not exactly the type of build you’d prefer out of a combo guard with unproven point guard skills. On top of this, he struggled mightily in the 5-on-5 scrimmages. According to ESPN’s Jonathan Givony, NBA teams unanimously agreed that Steward would benefit from returning to Duke for a sophomore season.

When the news broke of his intention to leave Duke, we broke down examples of other players who boosted the trajectory of their NBA stock with strong sophomore seasons that Steward could have followed in the footsteps of. With that option officially off the table, Steward will now have an uphill battle to find himself on an NBA roster at the start of the 2021-22 season. It’s hard not imagining his lack of size being a deterrent to those chances, but the NBA is an offense-first league and Steward knows a thing or two about putting the ball in the basket.

Luckily for DJ, going undrafted would not be a death sentence to his career. There are plenty of examples of guys currently in the league who took that same path, including Fred VanVleet, Christian Wood, and even Duke’s own Seth Curry. If he does indeed go unselected, the most likely next step for Steward will be signing a two-way contract with a team in the days following the draft. He’d then have the Summer League and training camp to try and improve upon his perception following the combine, with hopes of converting that contract into a standard one with a guaranteed roster spot. Still, that's an incredibly hard road to take, which highlights just how seemingly bad the decision Steward made to not leave his options open was.

Projection: Undrafted

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Unfortunately for Duke, after a disappointing 2020-21 campaign, it looks to be an underwhelming outgoing professional class as well. If Johnson doesn't hear his name called in the first fourteen picks, it will be the second year in a row that Duke would fail to have a player selected in the lottery. Luckily for the program and fans alike, this streak is almost certain to end after just two seasons, as the 2021-22 roster looks to have multiple potential lottery picks in tow.

#14: Coach K retiring after 2021-22 season

BREAKING: Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski has decided to retire after this coming season, multiple sources told @stadium. Official announcement expected soon.

The leading candidate to replace K is assistant and former Duke player Jon Scheyer.

— Jeff Goodman (@GoodmanHoops) June 2, 2021

If you thought the college basketball news cycle was beginning to slow down as we turned the calendar to June, you were in for a whirlwind day. The entire landscape of the sport was rocked to its core on Wednesday afternoon when Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski announced the 2021-22 season would be his last. On top of that, news is already coming out that associate head coach Jon Scheyer is expected to be named the coach-in-waiting, ready to take over after the season ends. Wow! Duke has had its fair share of off-season news this spring, but there’s certainly none bigger than this. An era is officially coming to an end, and while many may view this as sad news, Save Duke Basketball is pretty damn excited.

It’s safe to assume that there was at least some knowledge of Krzyzewski's departure within the program before the news broke on Wednesday. Up until just recently, the coaching staff was very inactive on the recruiting trail for 2022 and onward, which is rather disconcerting given the typical nature of Duke’s rosters over recent years. As far as the current players on the roster, The Athletic’s Brendan Marks has reported that it may have been a factor in a few of the transfer defections this off-season. So, while this is shocking news to the general public, I wouldn’t expect a huge ripple effect to immediately impact the Duke roster for the 2021-22 season.

Speaking of the upcoming season, it should be no surprise that this is going to be treated as one last “all-in” push to win Coach K a sixth championship. Sure, there have been teams between 2015 and now that have been viewed in a similar light, but to coin a phrase from another legendary head coach, this is officially “The Last Dance”. The talent needed for such a run is certainly on the roster and they’ll need no extra motivation than winning a title for their coach in his farewell season, but it will still be an uphill battle. Duke likely won’t enter the season as any sort of prohibitive favorite, nor will they bring back a roster with a lot of experience and cohesion. Fortunately, the protocols for off-season practice will be returning to normal this summer, and the team will have plenty of time to try and gel together before the season officially starts in November.

The news of Coach K’s retirement was inevitable, but the news of Scheyer as the alleged coach-in-waiting is a very interesting decision if it holds true. To start, he has zero head coaching experience and will be immediately thrust into the role at one of the five biggest programs in the country. He’s said all the right things as an assistant and is unquestionably a more inspiring choice than the rest of Krzyzewski’s coaching tree, but this hire could go any which way and nobody would be surprised. While Duke fans, including myself, may have dreamed of the world where Brad Stevens stepped in as the eventual successor, the fact of the matter is that Coach K had enough power within the program to ensure that there would not even be any consideration of an outside hire. While Duke did recently name a new athletic director, this is Krzyzewski’s choice, plain and simple. Out of all the realistic options, Scheyer is the one who doesn’t carry the baggage of a failed attempt to run his own program, and that was good enough to get the job.

After learning under an all-time great, Jon Scheyer will get his chance to lead the Duke program. (Source: Ball Durham)

What Scheyer does have going for him is an excellent reputation on the recruiting trail. He was heavily involved with some of Duke’s biggest recruits in recent years, including Zion Williamson and Jayson Tatum. Still, it will be interesting to see just how much drop-off there will be in the program’s ability to reel in big names without the allure of playing for an all-time great coach. Another big question is just how clean will the slate be when Scheyer eventually takes over? In the world of immediate eligibility for one-time transfers, it’s not completely unreasonable to think that Duke's 2022-23 roster may not return a single rotation player from the 2021-22 season. Coach K's farewell tour will be exciting, but it's hard to not imagine a rebuilding period immediately following it.

While Jon won a championship on a Duke team that featured five upperclassmen in the starting lineup, he’s only ever been on the coaching staff for what could be defined as the era where Duke fully embraced the “one-and-done” movement. With full program control, it’ll be very interesting to see which side of the spectrum he prefers. While the sport has seemed to shift away from roster constructions such as the 2010 Blue Devils, there are still plenty of programs who manage to “get old and stay old”, as former Duke assistant Mike Brey has termed it. Although Coach K has obviously shifted away from that in recent years, the Duke program was built on a 1982 recruiting class that stuck around for four seasons and came one game away from a national championship. The early recruiting classes for Scheyer will be fundamental in establishing his culture for the program, and also pivotal in laying the groundwork for continued success.

It’s no secret that the Save Duke Basketball blog has been pushing for Coach K's retirement for some time. It’s encouraging to see that both Krzyzewski and Duke have decided to rip the band-aid off quickly after a one-year farewell tour, rather than letting him continue to coach even further into his decrepitude. With that said, as the original blog post of Save Duke Basketball mentioned, there is no Duke Basketball as we know it today without Mike Krzyzewski. He has absolutely built the program into a college basketball juggernaut, and for that he deserves to be right in the discussion of the greatest coach of all time, regardless of level or sport. It’s easy to look at the program’s failures since the 2015 title or even nitpick the missed opportunities, i.e. 1999, that came in the peak Duke years, but to win five national championships over the course of his tenure is an outstanding accomplishment that few coaches have been able to match.

So, you may now be asking yourself, “Has Duke Basketball been saved?” Yes, the original purpose of this blog was to expose the shortcomings of the program over the past half-decade, but while Coach K may be moving on after the season, his imprint on the program will remain as long as any of his former players are roaming the sidelines. With Scheyer being the hand-chosen successor, it’ll be interesting to see just how far he strays away from the philosophies, mannerisms, etc. of his mentor. Until we find out what the direction is, the answer is still no. There’s a lot to speculate on with the future of the Duke program, but the idea of drastic change is something that has only been seen lately from a year-to-year roster standpoint. Whether it works out for Scheyer or not is something we won’t know for a few years now, but trust me, the change is good.

#13: Duke Transfer Roundup 2021

With the off-season news coming in at a slower rate than it was just a month ago, I thought it’d be a good opportunity to take a look back at Duke’s outgoing transfers and what to expect from them in the 2021-22 season. While we covered each roster move in detail in the real time, none of the players declared their new team right away, and thus we weren’t able to project anything based off their landing spot. With all four of the former Blue Devils’ destinations secured, let’s take a look at what we can anticipate from them.

Jaemyn Brakefield: Mississippi

Following an inconsistent freshman season at Duke, Brakefield decided to return to his home state of Mississippi to continue his collegiate career. In 2020-21, Ole Miss went 16-12, including ten wins in the SEC, but failed to qualify for the NCAA Tournament. Like most programs, they’ve had their fair share of player movement this off-season. With the dust mostly settled, there appears to be an opportunity for Brakefield to play a key role immediately for the Rebels. Two frontcourt starters from last season, Romello White and KJ Buffen, won’t be returning to Oxford. The same goes for Khadim Sy, a starter for Ole Miss in the 2019-20 season who battled knee injuries throughout the 2020-21 campaign. There are also losses in the backcourt, including last season’s leading scorer, Devontae Shuler, who’ll be pursuing professional opportunities along with White.

The only rotational pieces that are returning in the frontcourt are Robert Allen, who started 8 games last season after transferring from Samford, and Sammy Hunter, a 6’9” forward who hasn’t made much of an impact in his two seasons for the Rebels. Duke fans may remember Miami center Nysier Brooks, who’ll be joining Brakefield in transferring to Ole Miss. The two figure to have a great shot of coming in and starting immediately for head coach Kermit Davis. It’s unlikely Ole Miss will contend for a conference championship in 2021-22, as the SEC looks to be very strong yet again. However, a tournament berth isn’t out of the conversation, and Brakefield will get plenty of chances to go head-to-head with the plethora of talented forwards in the conference. With the disappointment of his first year behind him, Jaemyn will have a great chance in Oxford to play a hefty amount of minutes – something he wouldn’t have done at Duke this year – and try to work his way back onto the radar of NBA scouts. 

Original coverage of transfer: https://savedukebasketball.blogspot.com/2021/03/2-jaemyn-brakefield-enters-transfer.html

Jordan Goldwire: Oklahoma

After their run in the NCAA Tournament was halted by the eventual runners-up Gonzaga Bulldogs, the Oklahoma program saw an upheaval that few teams could match this off-season. Just a few days after the loss, head coach Lon Kruger announced his retirement, and seven of the ten players who logged at least 100 minutes in the 2020-21 season would follow him soon after. The biggest hole was left at point guard by senior Austin Reaves, the proverbial heart and soul of the team who declared for the NBA draft. Umoja Gibson and Elijah Harkless, both 2020 transfers from smaller schools, were the only backcourt players returning, and neither had previously shown the ability to play lead guard for a power conference team. There were plenty of minutes to go around in the projected rotation of new coach Porter Moser. 

Insert Jordan Goldwire, who, after four years of playing the role of defensive specialist, is yearning for the chance to run a team. Such a chance he never would’ve gotten under Mike Krzyzewski. Don’t get me wrong, Coach K loved Jordan and would’ve found ways to get him on the floor plenty during the 2021-22 season. But Jordan wanted be the lead guard, and that simply wasn’t in Duke’s plans. Goldwire isn’t the only incoming transfer for the Sooners; he’ll be joined by brothers Tanner and Jacob Groves of Eastern Washington as well as SMU’s Ethan Chargois. Most of the Sooners’ rotation will be made up of guys who scored double digit points per game at lower levels, but they won’t have a single guy who’s done it at such a level as the Big 12. The success of the team will be largely predicated on players, including Goldwire, taking on a bigger portion of offensive responsibilities than they saw last season. Having watched Jordan for four years, it’ll certainly be interesting to see whether or not he’s capable of it. 

Original coverage of transfer: https://savedukebasketball.blogspot.com/2021/03/3-jordan-goldwire-also-enters-transfer.html

Patrick Tapé: San Francisco

If 45 minutes of the Patrick Tapé Experience weren’t enough for you for Duke, you’ll get one last chance to watch him play this upcoming season. You’d better be ready to set the DVR to record those late Pacific time tip-offs, as he’ll be finishing out his collegiate career at the University of San Francisco of the West Coast Conference. Yes, that means you’ll get to watch him play at least one game against the likely preseason #1 team, the Gonzaga Bulldogs. But Gonzaga isn’t the only capable team in the conference, as the WCC will try to send multiple teams to the NCAA Tournament for the third time in the last four years.

The Dons won’t be the favorite to lock down that second spot, but don’t rule them out entirely. While their 11-14 record in 2020-21 was disappointing, they did manage to knock off the Virginia Cavaliers early in the season and should return most of their roster. Tapé will actually be joined in San Francisco by his former Columbia teammate, Gabe Stefanini, who has played just 45 less minutes than Patrick since the 2018-19 season. Also in the fold for the Dons are San Diego’s Yauhen Massalski and Nevada’s Zane Meeks, both of whom should provide front court depth. Last season’s leading scorer, Jamaree Bouyea, has been linked with the NBA draft process, but if he stays, San Francisco will have a real chance to contend for an NCAA Tournament berth in 2021-22. 

Original coverage of transfer: https://savedukebasketball.blogspot.com/2021/03/4-patrick-tape-re-enters-transfer-portal.html

Henry Coleman III: Texas A&M

The first two years of Buzz Williams’ tenure at Texas A&M haven’t gone as smoothly as the Aggie faithful would’ve hoped, and there’s plenty of reason to believe year three won’t be much better. After racking up just two conference wins in the COVID-shortened season, eight different Aggies entered their name into the transfer portal. If Williams is going to earn his $24 million contract, he’ll have to do so by building the program back from the ground up. Part of that foundation was the addition of Duke’s Henry Coleman III, whose transfer caught a lot of Duke fans off guard, including myself. While Henry will be missed in Durham, there’s no doubt his opportunity to play is much greater in College Station.

Despite the eight transfers, A&M’s cupboard of returning players isn’t completely bare – they’ll return three of their top six scorers from a season ago. Fortunately for Coleman’s prospects of immediate playing time, all of the returns come in the backcourt. Similar to Brakefield’s situation at Ole Miss, the Aggies’ frontcourt rotation projects to be mostly newcomers at the moment, giving Henry a great opportunity to contribute right away. His biggest competition for minutes appears to be Arkansas transfer Ethan Henderson, Connecticut transfer Javonte Brown, and freshman Ashton Smith. While Blue Devil fans will certainly feel a sense of regret if Coleman is able to blossom away from Durham, we should find out pretty soon just what type of player he can be given a real chance. 

Original coverage of transfer: https://savedukebasketball.blogspot.com/2021/04/10-henry-coleman-iii-enters-transfer.html

#12: Duke Development Diaries, Part 2

Last week, I posted the first part of a series highlighting Duke’s struggles in player development since the 2015 championship team. Here’s the second part, focusing on the players who lasted three or more years in the program from the 2017 and 2018 recruiting classes:

Note: All pictures came from Ball Durham.

Alex O’Connell (2017) – #20 SG/#87 Overall (ESPN), #14 SG/#68 Overall (247 Sports)

Duke Career Stats: 101 G, 12.5 MPG, 4.3 PPG, 1.8 RPG, 0.6 APG

On paper, Alex O’Connell is the exact type of recruit that you’d want the Blue Devils to sign. He was billed as a prolific three-point shooter with athleticism and his father even played for Duke in the 1970’s. He hit just under 49% of his threes as a freshman and even briefly wrestled a starting spot away from Trevon Duval. Unfortunately, the three-point clip O’Connell posted as a freshman turned out to be an aberration. Even at the percentage he shot from deep as a sophomore (37.5%), he could’ve been the perfect complementary player on the 2018-19 team that so desperately lacked a consistent three-point shooting presence, but he was yo-yoed in and out of the rotation for the latter half of the season. A late scratch by Cam Reddish catapulted O’Connell into a major role in the Sweet Sixteen win over Virginia Tech, but he played just three minutes in the following game which wound up being Duke’s last of the season.

Despite an uninspiring first two seasons in Durham, many around the program remained confident that O’Connell would break out as an upperclassman – he certainly wouldn’t be the first Blue Devil to do so. He averaged 11 points per game in the Devils’ first three contests, but wound up becoming an even more inconsistent version of himself than his first two seasons. He finished the year just 21/77 (27.3%) from three and made the same defensive mistakes that kept him from seeing the court more consistently as an underclassman. Ultimately, O’Connell found himself out of the rotation completely by year’s end for the first time in his career. Leaving the program seemed to be the only way for him to escape Coach K’s doghouse and it shouldn’t have surprised anybody when he entered his name in the portal at season’s end.

For a player who seemingly had all the physical tools to be an impact player, what exactly went wrong for Alex? Could the coaching staff just not tap into the resource of talent or was it impossible to do so? The verdict on this one will ultimately play out in O’Connell’s final season of college basketball. It’s hard to take much from his first season at Creighton; he was planning on redshirting and he wasn’t a part of the team’s plans. With the entire starting lineup leaving Creighton’s program, O’Connell will presumably get a chance to be one of the featured players for the first time in his career. It’s possible that this was a situation that was never going to work in Durham, but if O’Connell shines in his fifth and final year, Duke fans may live to regret letting him get away.

Jordan Goldwire (2017) – #47 PG/Unranked Overall (ESPN), #88 PG/#398 Overall (247 Sports)

Duke Career Stats: 116 G, 16.4 MPG, 2.9 PPG, 1.6 RPG, 1.8 APG

Considering how far down Goldwire ranked on all recruiting sites, this is probably the biggest win for Duke’s recent player scouting/development. As I already covered in greater detail, Goldwire emerged as an elite on-ball defender as an upperclassman who made a positive impact on the floor in spite of severe offensive limitations. Even though he never developed into a productive scorer, he led the conference in assist-to-turnover ratio as a senior. With a year of eligibility remaining, Jordan is heading to Oklahoma, where he looks to be in line for a bigger role. It’ll certainly be interesting to see Goldwire’s impact for another program and whether or not he’ll be able to take his offensive game to the next level for the Sooners.

Joey Baker (2018) – #11 PF/#41 Overall (ESPN), #7 SF/#33 Overall (247 Sports)

Duke Career Stats (To Date): 55 G, 11.3 MPG, 3.8 PPG, 1.0 RPG, 0.5 APG

The only player on the list who’s still in the program, it’d be hard not to consider Baker’s career to date at Duke a disappointment. Baker was considered the #15 overall recruit in ESPN’s 2019 rankings before he re-classified to join the star-studded 2018 class. Other than finding his way onto the cover of Sports Illustrated, Baker’s freshman season was most notable for Coach K’s inexplicable decision to pull his redshirt in February, only to play him a total of 18 minutes for the rest of the season. Thankfully for Joey, he will get that year of eligibility back, if he so chooses, thanks to the NCAA waiver. If the first three years of his collegiate career are any indication, he'll likely need it if he has any intentions of reaching the expectations he had coming in.

Baker was certainly inconsistent in his first full season playing for Duke in 2019-20, but he did have some big games off the bench and helped the Blue Devils get out of some tight spots. One that stands out in my mind was a game at Boston College where the team looked completely lifeless and in line for a vintage mid-week conference road loss. Joey had hardly played the entire game before coming in midway through the second half, but that didn't stop him from sparking the team to victory with eight points in quick succession and energy plays on defense. He only played 28 minutes in the last six games of the season before the coronavirus wiped away the post-season, but it’d be hard to call his sophomore season a failure given the coaching malpractice he endured as a freshman. 

Unfortunately for Baker, he was far less productive offensively as a junior and couldn’t carve out consistent minutes for a team that really could’ve used another upperclassman presence on both sides of the ball. What may be a surprise to some is that Baker was Duke’s most impactful defensive player according to on/off splits among players who played over 100 minutes in 2020-21. If his shot had been falling, he would’ve played a lot more than he did and it’s certainly fair to question whether or not he should’ve been given greater liberty to play through slumps. But there is no questioning that his offensive game regressed from his sophomore season, even outside of any cold shooting from deep. His assist rate was cut in half, his turnover rate nearly doubled, and he shot only 30% on two-point field goals. He still can’t be trusted to put the ball on the floor and attack the basket despite plenty of failed attempts to try and do so. 

All indications are that Baker will stick around for a fourth season in Durham. While he won’t be the only senior on the roster, he’ll be the only Blue Devil to have been in the program for four full seasons. The role he'll have will largely be determined by whether or not he can consistently knock down outside shots and make good decisions with the basketball. Even in his sophomore season, his shooting accuracy fluctuated from game to game and we’ve seen that Coach K does not have enough confidence in him to let him play through a cold stretch. Duke’s expectations will likely be as lofty as ever in 2021-22 and Baker is going to be called upon in big moments. The entire trajectory of his Duke career will change based on whether or not he delivers in them.

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So how should we temper our forecasts for recruits who are viewed as more of a “long term play”? Simple, don’t expect much. The players who are good enough to jump to the professional ranks after one or two seasons are doing so in large abundance for Duke. Those who aren’t are either going to wind up entering the transfer portal seeking a bigger role after being recruited over by the next big incoming class or sticking around in Durham to graduate largely as the same players they were when they arrived. It’s hard to imagine this process changing as long as Mike Krzyzewski is the coach of the Blue Devils, for better or worse. 

#11: Duke Development Diaries, Part 1

It should surprise nobody reading this that today’s college basketball players are far more eager to bypass remaining eligibility in favor of a professional career. Similarly, it’s no secret than Duke and Kentucky have been the two programs to lean into this landscape change the furthest and both have a national championship to show for it. For Duke, this philosophical overhaul was a stark contrast from years past. Coach K’s first four national championship teams combined started less freshmen in their respective championship games (2) than the 2015 team that caught lightning in a bottle (3). The Blue Devils have tried time and time again to replicate this formula, but they’ve failed to even reach a Final Four in the six tries since. 13 of the 21 one-and-done players in program history have come since 2015! Meanwhile, the five teams that have actually lifted the championship trophy in that same timespan have started a combined two true freshmen. Compare that with the 21 upperclassmen starting on those five championship teams and it’s pretty obvious that experience is a very important factor in March/April. 

So why are Duke’s recent rosters trending so much younger? In the opening blog entry, I compared the program’s current recruiting strategy to a baseball player trying to hit a walk-off homerun when all his team needs him to do is get on base. But just one recruiting class cannot win a championship. Even the 2012 Kentucky and 2015 Duke teams that won the championship while heavily featuring one-and-done players also had upperclassmen playing key parts. Therein lies the problem for recent Duke teams. They've been as good as any program at bringing in star freshmen, but they've completely failed at finding and developing quality multi-year players to complement them. In this blog entry, we’ll take a look at all the Blue Devils recruited since 2015 who stayed in the program three or more seasons.

Note: All pictures came from Ball Durham.

Antonio Vrankovic (2015) – #42 C/Unranked Overall (ESPN), #51 PF/#203 Overall (247 Sports)

Duke Career Stats: 49 G, 5.5 MPG, 1.5 PPG, 1.6 RPG, 0.4 APG

Antonio signed with Duke fairly late in the recruiting process in 2015, and while he never had star expectations, he failed to even earn consistent rotation minutes at any point in his four years in Durham. Vrankovic was mostly used in only garbage time and emergency situations, but despite his lack of an overall impact, he did have some moments. In 2016-17, Duke was 12-0 in games where he played at least one minute. Let’s be clear, he was not a primary reason for any of those wins, but he did some positive things and was a better center option off the bench than freshman Marques Bolden that season. My personal favorite Vrankovic performance came in the 2019 ACC Tournament against North Carolina, where he was inserted into the game down 11 after Javin DeLaurier got into foul trouble and was part of the mishmash unit that helped tie the game at 44 by halftime. Vrankovic only played 269 minutes in his entire collegiate career, which is far from enough to develop any player, let alone such a raw prospect. There were plenty of talented big men ahead of Vrankovic in the rotation every season, but just on the grounds that he never even got a chance to prove if he could be a positive rotational piece for the Blue Devils, this one has to go down as a miss.

Marques Bolden (2017) – #2 C/#16 Overall (ESPN), #1 C/#14 Overall (247 Sports)

Duke Career Stats: 88 G, 13.6 MPG, 3.8 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 0.4 APG

The highest ranked recruit on this list by a mile and the only McDonalds All-American, Bolden arrived at Duke with lofty expectations and was seen by many as a potential one-and-done himself. After a lower leg injury forced him to miss the first eight games of his freshman campaign, he was never able to find his footing (pun not intended). He played just 11 total minutes in Duke’s final eight games, including three straight DNP’s to end the season. Naturally, the transfer rumors started to swirl, but Bolden decided in the end to return to Durham for a second season. The additions of Marvin Bagley III and Wendell Carter Jr. relegated Bolden to the bench again as a sophomore, but Marques was able to parlay a mostly clean bill of health into a much more productive campaign. Despite the still-limited minutes (373), he emerged as the team’s second best shot blocker.

Coming back for his third and ultimately final season in Durham, Marques was finally given a chance to start and play the majority of the center minutes alongside perhaps Duke’s most hyped freshmen class ever. He and Javin DeLaurier both had stints in the starting unit, but neither was able to take a firm hold of the position. Bolden’s extraordinary shot blocking got even better in 2018-19, but his offensive game was still far from what was expected of him early on in his career and his defensive rebounding rate dropped from the season before. An MCL sprain in the last regular season game against North Carolina knocked him out of the ACC tournament, and the Bolden that returned for the NCAA Tournament just wasn’t the same – a detail that I think gets lost in the eulogy of the 2018-19 Duke Blue Devils. 

With Vernon Carey Jr. set to arrive in Durham the coming fall and Javin DeLaurier returning for his senior season, the writing was on the wall for Bolden. He chose to make the jump to the pros, but unfortunately didn’t hear his name called in the 2019 NBA Draft. He’s bounced up and down a few times with the Cleveland Cavaliers and their G-League affiliate, the Canton Charge, before eventually being waived in February. Given the hype that surrounded him as a recruit, Bolden’s career at Duke has to be considered a failure by both the Duke coaching staff and the recruiting pundits who ranked him so high in the first place. He developed into a serviceable center who started 60% of his games in his final season, but that’s not what anybody would've hoped for out of a top twenty recruit who was garnering major NBA buzz before coming to Durham.

Javin DeLaurier (2016) – #9 PF/#45 Overall (ESPN), #11 PF/#39 Overall (247 Sports)

Duke Career Stats: 114 G, 13.4 MPG, 3.4 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 0.4 APG

Javin was the third member of the celebrated 2016 recruiting class to commit to Duke and while his expectations were far from the highest of the group, he was one of only two players in the class to play all four seasons in Durham. Even though the 2016-17 team faced injury problems all season long, DeLaurier only played 85 minutes as a freshman, 76 of which came before December 10th. To be honest, it’s pretty surprising that transfer rumors didn’t pour in like they always seem to do for Duke players who fail to find success right away. But Javin came back to school and earned a bigger role as a sophomore, playing rotation minutes in a crowded frontcourt and even earning five starts. He didn’t shoot much outside of the restricted area, but he did connect on over 64% of his field goals and was a solid defensive player and rebounder.

As was mentioned in the previous section, DeLaurier and Marques Bolden would mostly take turns as the fifth starter alongside the four star freshmen of the 2018 class. Both provided high-level rim protection, but neither player emerged as a consistent offensive option at any point during the season. DeLaurier’s lack of offensive development was epitomized by his turnover percentage of 23.7% despite the second lowest usage rate on the team. He did have his best game of the season in Duke’s last, going for 10 points on 5-5 from the field, 11 rebounds and 3 blocks in the heartbreaking Elite 8 loss to Michigan State. He attempted to parlay his big game into positive feedback during the NBA draft process, but he eventually received the correct advice that he would be best served coming back to school for one more season. With Vernon Carey Jr. arriving on campus, Javin’s opportunities to shine came few and far between as a senior. His usage percentage did just barely reach a career high, but both his role and production were largely the same as the two years prior.

After a disappointing end to his senior season thanks to the coronavirus pandemic, DeLaurier would go undrafted in 2020. It’d be easy to label this one as a recruiting whiff by the Duke staff. After all, there are several players who ranked lower than Javin in 2016 – Kevin Huerter, Grant Williams, Robert Williams, and Payton Pritchard to name a few – who were drafted after their time in college. But could Javin have turned out better in a system more suited to develop raw players? It’s almost impossible to see a scenario where Javin ends up any less developed than he did after his four years at Duke. What about his game was so much different as a senior than it was as a sophomore? Did his remarkably bad hands get any more reliable? He’s going to have an uphill battle trying to breakthrough onto an NBA roster over the next few years and is yet another example of Duke’s player development failing a recruit who came to Durham with potential.

Jack White (2016) – #45 SF/#226 Overall (247 Sports)

Duke Career Stats: 103 G, 13.6 MPG, 2.7 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 0.6 APG

Not to be confused with any famous guitarists, basketball-playing Jack White was another recruit who came to Duke with little to no fanfare. The Australian native had offers from lesser programs like Boise State and Albany, but opted instead to join Duke’s already loaded 2016 recruiting class instead. He didn’t get much of an opportunity (just 220 minutes) in his first two seasons in Durham, but that didn’t stop White and Javin DeLaurier from being named co-captains in 2018 on a team begging for production from upperclassmen. For the first thirteen games of the season, White was sensational as a role player. He was scoring 7.5 points per game while hitting over 41% of his three point attempts. He also notched 6.8 rebounds, 1.2 steals, and 1.4 blocks per contest. He was exactly the role player then number one ranked Duke needed to complement their cavalcade of freshmen stars. 

Shortly after, the wheels fell off. In a January overtime loss to Syracuse, White missed all ten of his three point attempts. In the following games, Jack’s confidence was understandably lost. He became hesitant to shoot open shots even when opponents dared him and his allotment of minutes got smaller as a result. He would continue on to miss 18 more threes in a row before finally breaking out of his slump against Miami in early March. He would later injure his hamstring in the ACC championship game against Florida State, which forced him out of action during the first weekend in the NCAA Tournament. He then returned against Virginia Tech in the Sweet 16 but was a non-factor in the last two games of the season. There are a lot of plot points when reminiscing about the 18-19 team’s failure to win the program’s sixth championship, but White’s late season yips shouldn’t be lost among them. If he plays anywhere close to his early season level down the stretch, Duke would have been much harder to beat in the tournament.

White returned for his senior season and again assumed the mantle of co-captain alongside DeLaurier and sophomore Tre Jones. He was still the guy Duke could count on to give his all every night, but his shooting form from the early days of 2018-19 never returned. On one of Duke’s deeper teams in recent memory, White eventually found himself on the outside of the rotation, only playing 61 combined minutes in Duke’s final ten games, and his Duke career was unceremoniously ended by the coronavirus pandemic. Ultimately, this was a guy who did all the little things and showed flashes as a guy who could stretch the floor. Why he only played 220 minutes in his first two seasons is something I’ll never understand. Specifically, the 2017-18 team didn’t have another small forward on the roster and was porous defensively before a switch to 2-3 zone saved the season. An impact defensive player such as White could've had an impact on that team and White would've benefited in the long run as well. Unfortunately for White and the others, Coach K and the rest of the staff simply don't have any semblance of long term vision anymore.

Stay tuned for Part 2, where we'll highlight the recruits from the 2017 and 2018 classes.

#10: Henry Coleman III enters the transfer portal

NEWS: Henry Coleman will enter transfer portal. pic.twitter.com/fNExRQ53Bd

— Duke Men’s Basketball (@DukeMBB) April 20, 2021

Just when it seemed the Duke roster for next season was finally starting to take shape, the turbulent 2021 college basketball off-season struck yet again. On Tuesday afternoon, it was announced that freshman forward Henry Coleman III would be entering the transfer portal, the fourth Blue Devil to do so in the past month. There's been plenty of personnel turnover in the Duke program recently with the recent influx of one-and-done players, but this amount of players coming and going is unlike anything we’ve ever seen before. What’s perhaps most unfortunate is that I can say with zero confidence that’s it’s unlike anything we’ll ever see again, as this just seems to be the direction college sports are headed.

Coleman’s freshman season at Duke was rather mundane, but he did have a few big moments in home games against North Carolina and Virginia when the team needed a lift. Although he was rather raw offensively and could’ve even been a redshirt candidate in a normal season, Coleman was an incredibly effective defensive player whenever his number was called upon. In the 95 minutes Coleman played, Duke was over 13 points better defensively per 100 possessions. Obviously, that’s a very small sample size, but the eye test backed up Coleman’s impact on that end. Even if his offense didn’t come around in time for the 2021-22 season, he would’ve been a welcome presence on the roster for his energy and effort on both ends.

The immediate question that has to be asked is whether or not the acquisition of Marquette transfer Theo John pushed Coleman out the door. While John is more of a traditional center than Coleman, the two would presumably be competing for the same frontcourt minutes off the bench. Only those inside the program will know the exact order in which these events went down, but if John is the reason for Coleman’s departure, it further emphasizes how badly Coach K has mismanaged players over the past six seasons in order to try and win a sixth championship. If Duke doesn’t win it all this season, this is a bad gamble by the staff, plain and simple.

Coleman's defensive presence wasn't enough to earn consistent minutes last season. Source: Raleigh News & Observer

From Coleman’s perspective, this may wind up being a great decision for the development of his career. The failures of late by the Duke coaching staff to develop players ranked outside of the top fifty is no secret. As the 54th-ranked prospect in the 2020 class, Coleman’s development simply was not at the top of the list of priorities. It’s sad to see yet another young player leave who would’ve helped Blue Devil teams in the future, but in the era where kids can transfer and play immediately, who is going to want to sit around and wait multiple seasons for a chance at playing time?

With Coleman’s departure, the six-man 2020 recruiting class that ranked second nationally is down to just two remaining players, Jeremy Roach and Mark Williams. What is the point of bringing in these heralded recruiting classes if the players aren’t even in Durham for a full season? Not since the 2015 class has Duke retained over 50% of its freshmen in a given season and 80% of that group was gone by the end of year two. It’d be one thing if this was a proven model for winning in college basketball, but it simply isn’t. Teams with experience have a big edge in the winner-take-all games of March and April, but the Duke coaching staff doesn’t even seem to care. Sure, experience is easier to attain than ever these days with the transfer portal, but there’s something to be said for groups with roster continuity that have been through the heat of battle together (see Duke's 2010 roster). 

Obviously, the 2020-21 team endured plenty of ups and downs on their way to missing the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1995, but I don’t think anybody could’ve expected this type of roster purge. Counting Jalen Johnson, Duke has now lost seven of their eleven scholarship players from the start of the 2020-21 season and we haven’t even reached May. The transfer portal is closing in on 1,500 names and it’d be naïve to assume this is Duke’s last player to enter it this spring. One thing is clear; the Duke coaching staff is all-in on another run for a championship this season. If any returning player on the roster wasn’t happy with their projected role on the 2021-22 team, they had every right to seek other opportunities. Henry Coleman III did just that and we wish him nothing but the best. 

#9: Duke adds 2021 four-star PG Jaylen Blakes

After last week’s additions to the frontcourt, the only glaring hole on Duke’s 2021-22 roster, at least as it stands today, was at point guard. Duke struggled to get consistent production from the lead guard spot last season and while neither Jeremy Roach nor Wendell Moore have yet announced any intentions to leave Durham, there was certainly room for another player capable of filling minutes at the position. On Monday afternoon, the void was filled when four-star guard Jaylen Blakes became the fourth member of Duke’s 2021 recruiting class. He officially committed to the Blue Devils just one week after receiving an offer from the coaching staff. With minutes to be had at the guard positions, Blakes is likely to be a factor in Duke’s rotation right away.

Blakes, the 86th-ranked 2021 prospect according to ESPN, had plenty of other power conference offers on the table before Duke swooped in. He attended the same high school, Blair Academy, as former Blue Devil Luol Deng and was the winningest player in program history. Jaylen is an intriguing prospect offensively, but his defensive ability is what will matter the most early on in his Duke career as he attempts to carve out a role. He has been reported to have 6’8” wingspan despite standing just 6’2” and should give Duke a reliable defensive option at guard if Roach cannot show significant improvements from his freshman season on that end. By all accounts, Blakes is a hard-working young man and should have no problem finding a spot in Duke’s rotation next season.

Jaylen Blakes has a chance to play a key role in Duke's guard rotation. Source: Blue Devil Nation

Unfortunately for Duke, the recent history with players in this range of the recruiting rankings isn’t very favorable. While the expectation would be for signees outside of the top 40 to stay at the same school for multiple years and blossom into starting-caliber players as upperclassmen, the examples of this are growing fewer and further between with each passing season. Duke’s recent track record of player development is about as bleak as it gets, which is especially disappointing from a program that used to be so reliant on star juniors and seniors. Not many guys are hanging around the program for four years lately, and those that are aren’t developing to anything more than role players.

Duke’s recent developmental failures don’t spell doom and gloom for Blakes, however. The program is “championship or bust” every season these days as Coach K’s career winds down, and Jaylen is filling a specific role on a team that will presumably start the season ranked in the top ten yet again this year. Sophomore Jeremy Roach will most likely be the starting point guard to start the season, but that doesn’t mean he can’t lose minutes. After all, Roach started 18 of 24 games this past season and still found himself either relegated to off-ball duties or on the bench entirely for important stretches. Jordan Goldwire played 28.5 minutes per game on last year’s team just by playing mistake free on offense and shining on the defensive end. If Blakes comes in right away and earns Coach K’s trust on both sides, he could find himself playing in plenty of big spots.