#8: Duke adds transfers Bates Jones and Theo John

At this point, it’s becoming cliché to talk about the chaotic nature of this off-season. The deck is being reshuffled across the country on an hourly basis and there’s no sign of it slowing down anytime soon. What may have caught a lot of longtime followers by surprise is that Duke is now officially the beneficiary of transfer news, and it’s not just one player. That’s right; Mike Krzyzewski is finally embracing the transfer portal, a rare sign of adaptation from the 74-year-old. Just in the last 24 hours, Duke managed to add two super seniors in Davidson’s Bates Jones and Marquette’s Theo John. The two will bolster a Duke roster that, after the news of Matthew Hurt’s departure, only featured three scholarship players at power forward and center.

After playing four years for the Davidson Wildcats, Jones will head to Durham for his fifth and final season of collegiate eligibility. He’s following in the footsteps of his brother, Daniel, who spent four years playing quarterback at Duke himself before being picked in the first round of the 2019 NFL Draft by the New York Giants. Bates was never a star in his time at Davidson, but he did feature in the rotation as an upperclassman and even started five games in his career. The 6’8” power forward wasn’t a primary scoring option for the Wildcats when he was on the court, but he did shoot more than half of his career field goal attempts from three-point range and converted at a percentage higher than any returning player on Duke’s team shot in 2020-21. It seems unlikely that he’ll feature prominently in the rotation for the Blue Devils this coming season, but he does provide depth and experience for a team that only had one senior on the roster going into this week.

Jones will give Duke another frontcourt option off the bench in 2021-22. Source: Davidson College Athletics

While Jones doesn’t figure to play much of a part in Duke’s plans for 2021-22, Theo John was a three-year starter for Marquette and the defensive backbone for Steve Wojciechowski’s Golden Eagles. The Marquette teams anchored by the Minnesota native were never stout defensively, but it was far from the fault of John. In his four seasons in Milwaukee, Theo put his 7'4" wingspan to good use, posting a career block percentage of 8.4%. For comparison, Marques Bolden posted a block percentage of 8.5% in 2018-19. As the previous entry about Hurt’s departure already mentioned, Duke only had one player they could count on for rim protection last season, and John will be a welcome addition to the roster in that regard.

On the offensive end, John is far more limited. He did see a modest increase in usage as a senior due to the departure of Markus Howard, but his output was still very minimal. He’s very well built at 6’9” and 245 pounds, but he’s not much of a finisher outside of the restricted area and his post repertoire could best be described as robotic. He turned the ball over on 22.5% of his possessions, which is far too high for someone a player in his role. To help paint a picture, it’s roughly equivalent to Javin DeLaurier’s career turnover percentage for Duke. On the bright side, he did improve his free throw percentage considerably from 56% as a junior to a very respectable 74% as a senior and even hit three out of four shots from three.

John could play a vital defensive role for Duke next season. Source: Marquette University Athletics

With the slight uptick in offensive responsibility, other areas of John’s game dipped; his offensive rebound (7.3%), defensive rebound (14.3%), and block (6.0%) percentages were all career lows as a senior. Hopefully with a stronger group of talent around him at Duke, John can get back to doing what he does best. One could assume that a three-year starter in the Big East wouldn’t commit to Duke without at least some guarantees in terms of playing time and role definition, but Duke shouldn’t need John to do any of the things he isn’t already well suited to do. If he’s been brought in to be a low-usage backup to Mark Williams at the five, he’s a great pickup from the portal. The worst case scenario is that his signing was a panic move to fill the hole that could hypothetically be left by a surprise departure from Williams. While he’d obviously still be needed in that case, Williams’ exit would be the toughest pill to swallow yet this off-season for Blue Devil fans and would put a serious damper onto any championship aspirations.

Saying Duke’s roster is unlikely to change between now and the start of the 2021-22 season would be a foolish endeavor, but no matter what is still to come, Duke at least has taken the necessary steps to solidify its frontcourt. The one-time transfer rule is officially here to stay, and taking advantage of the portal is going to become second nature for all programs soon enough. The biggest positive for Duke is that it seems finally ready to use it as a positive way to bolster the roster and not just accept losing disgruntled players to it. They dipped their toes in last off-season with Patrick Tapé, and while his impact was minimal, the staff is thankfully not afraid to test the market again. If anything, the bar was set so low by the program’s first-ever graduate transfer that these two should have no problem coming in and making an impact.

#7: Matthew Hurt declares for NBA Draft

Best wishes to our guy @HurtMatthew! A walking bucket headed to the league. pic.twitter.com/bk6qmiAWfM

— Duke Men’s Basketball (@DukeMBB) April 14, 2021

It had been a little too quiet on the news front regarding Duke’s off-season roster turnover, but on Wednesday afternoon, it was finally confirmed that Matthew Hurt would be leaving Duke and moving onto the NBA. This headline should come as a surprise to no one, as Hurt was a consensus top fifteen recruit in 2019 who never intended to spend more than one season in college to begin with. After an up-and-down freshman campaign, Hurt needed to return to college if he hoped to ever hear his name called in the NBA Draft. As a sophomore, Hurt had about as good of an offensive season as he could’ve hoped and played his way back onto the NBA radar, albeit as a potential second round pick.

While Hurt improved in a lot of areas from year one to year two, the biggest difference between Hurt’s two seasons at Duke was the twenty pounds he added in the off-season. In the last ten games of the 2019-20 season, Hurt averaged just 6.4 points in 15.7 minutes per game. Even his shooting tailed off dramatically (40.8% from the field, 32.0% from three) and he lost most of his minutes to the revelation that was redshirt senior Justin Robinson. Despite his advanced skillset, he wasn’t physically ready to be a star at the collegiate level. The extra weight allowed Hurt to withstand the wear and tear of the full season and do what he does best: shoot the basketball. While the numbers may not even do his shooting clips this season justice, let’s give it a shot:

Now that Matthew Hurt is done this season: what a ridiculous shooting display

44 3P%, 63.5 2P%, 65 eFG% (296 FGA)

- post-ups: 1.37 ppp, 71 FG% (No. 1 nationally, 50+ poss)
- catch-and-shoot: 61 eFG%
- off-dribble: 55 eFG%
- 75 FG% rim, 57 FG% long 2PA https://t.co/xY3moAQhna

— Brian Geisinger (@bgeis_bird) March 11, 2021

Simply put, his numbers were absolutely absurd. According to Sports-Reference, he’s one of only four players since 1992-93 to score at least 18 points per game and hit at least 50 threes while shooting 55% or better from the field and 40% or better from three. He was the second-most efficient offensive player in college basketball this season, per Synergy Sports. The team was +4.97 points per possessions better per 100 possessions with him on the court, second on the team behind only Jeremy Roach. The offensive end will have to be Hurt’s calling card at the next level as well. He didn’t often stretch his range out as far as the NBA three-point line this season, but there should be little doubt a shooter of his ability can do so. With shooting and spacing becoming more valuable every passing season in the NBA, Hurt is certain to get opportunities to carve out a role at the next level.

In spite of all the positives, Hurt was still a flawed player in his prodigious sophomore season on the defensive end. Duke’s defense was almost two full points better with Hurt off the floor than it was with him on. The roster construction didn’t help him any defensively; he played approximately 500 minutes this season without a center on the court next to him. As you could expect, these units also struggled to rebound missed shots by the opponent. Hurt did improve as a rebounder in his second season, but he still left a lot to be desired. Units the paired Hurt with Mark Williams, the best rebounder and rim protector on the team, improved in both areas and even were a slight net positive defensively compared to Duke’s usual productivity, but they still gave up almost 102.6 points per 100 possessions. Any concerns about Matt’s potential to stick in the NBA will start at this end of the court. He can’t be asked to play the center with his lack of rim protection, so he’s going to have to develop into a guy who can defend NBA forwards if he ever wants to see consistent time.

As a sophomore, Hurt posted arguably the best shooting season in program history. Source: The Fayetteville Observer

Projecting ahead for Duke, Hurt’s offensive prowess will certainly be missed. He was the only player on the 2020-21 roster that could be counted on to score consistently, specifically in late clock situations, and Duke has no immediate answer to replace him. As it currently stands, Duke won't return a single player who's ever averaged over 10 points per game before at the collegiate level, which means they'll once again be counting on a large percentage of their points to come via incoming freshmen. With that said, a team without his defensive limitations should be able to progress greatly on the end where they need to see improvement the most. When Hurt was guarding in the post, opposing teams would attack him. When Hurt was guarding on the perimeter, opposing teams would hunt for a switch to try and drive at him. He fouled out of four games in the shortened season and came one foul away in seven more. Replacing Hurt in the lineup with Paolo Banchero, a prospect touted as a versatile defender, should make a big difference next season defensively.

With his career at Duke at a close, the retrospective on Hurt is a mixed bag, though many of the reasons were out of his control. On one hand, Hurt just turned in arguably the greatest shooting season in program history. While he didn’t have nearly the volume of somebody like J.J. Redick, his efficiency (65.1 eFG%) is unmatched by anybody who’s ever shot more than 100 threes in a season for the Blue Devils – the only other Duke player with an eFG% above 60% on such volume since 1992-93 is Andre Dawkins. On the other hand, Hurt is the first Blue Devil since Mike Krzyzewski first took over the program to play two full seasons in Durham and not make the NCAA Tournament. While coronavirus is mostly to blame for that, it’s hard to consider his Duke legacy when he doesn’t have any notable postseason moments to think back on. He also scored just 21 points in four career games against North Carolina, failing to leave any sort of imprint on the rivalry. With all that said, Duke fans were fortunate to watch Matt Hurt in a Duke uniform this season at all, let alone the shooting exhibition he put on. We’re wishing him nothing but the best of luck as he tries to add his name to the long list of former Blue Devils on an NBA roster next season.

#6: Duke lands 2021 five-star SG Trevor Keels

Five-star guard Trevor Keels has committed to Duke.

Keels to @PaulBiancardi: "Me and Coach K have a great relationship. He was always the same during the process. Straightforward guy. He told me what I needed to hear."

Blue Devils now have three five-star commitments in 2021.

— Jeff Borzello (@jeffborzello) April 2, 2021

After hearing of four different roster defections – five if you count associate head coach Nate James – in the past nine days, the Blue Devils were due for something positive to break their way. The first good news of the 2021 off-season finally came on Friday afternoon, when Trevor Keels announced on national television that he’d be signing a letter of intent to play for Duke this upcoming season. The five-star recruit from Fairfax, VA is the 19th-ranked overall prospect on ESPN’s class of 2021 rankings and the fourth highest among all shooting guards. 

As mentioned in the previous entry, Duke will hope for Keels to immediately fill the void created last night by DJ Steward’s departure. While the addition of Keels may lead some Duke fans to think of how the two could’ve hypothetically fit together had Steward stayed, it’s worth noting the improbability of both Steward returning for a sophomore season and Keels joining him. It was always going to be one or the other at best for Duke, and only time will tell which would’ve been the better option. One thing is for sure, Keels has everything that Steward lacked in terms of size, clocking in at 6’5” and 210 pounds on most recruiting sites. 

While Keels and Steward is a duo that will likely never play for Duke at the same time, Keels and Jeremy Roach already have a lot of familiarity together as former high school teammates. The two led Paul VI High School to the VISSA Championship in 2020 before Roach graduated and moved on to Durham. After selecting Duke, Keels cited his relationships with both Roach and Coach K as major factors that led to his commitment. The reunion should help Keels as he adjusts to playing at the collegiate level. Just as importantly, it should also help Roach's level of comfortability after a turbulent freshman season.

The Blue Devils will hope for Keels to fill the void left by DJ Steward's departure. Source: Lexington Herald Leader

With three of the top twenty recruits in the fold for next season, Duke will try once again to parlay a loaded recruiting class into the program’s sixth NCAA Championship. While lightning did strike once for Duke with a similar, but not identical, formula in 2015, there isn’t a Quinn Cook or Amile Jefferson you can point to on the 2021-22 roster. Player continuity tends to win the day more often than not, even in the current hectic climate of college basketball. For the Blue Devils to return to the top of the mountain, the forward steps taken by the returning players will be every bit as important as the shiny new toys arriving on campus in the fall.

Top prospects of all shapes and sizes have come through the program over the last ten years, and we’ve seen that it can be hard to project just how much of an impact some of these freshman will make in their one (and usually only) season in Durham. Keels has a great physical build for his age – he won’t turn 18 until August – and a sweet shooting stroke, but what could serve him best are the intangibles that his high school coach Glenn Farello raved about in an interview with the Washington Post:

“[Keels] has a complete commitment to the team winning, to being a great teammate, to doing whatever it takes. He always has.”

After a 13-11 season, a commitment to winning is exactly what this Blue Devil team needs. Who all Keels will be sharing the court with this season is still up in the air, but he should be primed to make an immediate impact for a team needing a serious jolt on the perimeter. 

#5: DJ Steward declares for NBA Draft

Good luck to our guy @swipasnipa as he chases that NBA dream pic.twitter.com/9VM8bXgJnK

— Duke Men’s Basketball (@DukeMBB) April 1, 2021

The departures just keep on coming for Duke. In what was already a hectic news day on Tobacco Road, freshman guard DJ Steward announced his intentions to declare for the 2021 NBA Draft and sign with an agent on Thursday evening. While the draft process has been revised over recent years to allow players to sign an agent and still maintain their collegiate eligibility, the quotes from both Steward and Coach K (above) certainly seem to have a sense of finality to them. The Chicago native is the fourth Blue Devil to leave the program in the last eight days, and is almost certainly not the last.

Steward arrived at Duke as a highly-touted recruit and immediately put the country on notice in his debut, scoring 24 points and adding 9 rebounds off the bench in a victory over Coppin State. While many were quick to hand him the title of the next great Duke guard, his 0/7 shooting night the following game immediately provided a glimpse of the up-and-down nature that would plague his freshman campaign. He was ultimately Duke’s best scorer in the backcourt and his 13.0 points per game would lead all ACC freshmen, but his streakiness was a big reason why he shot just 42.6% from the field and 34.1% from three. In the three-game losing streak that would provide the final nails in the coffin for Duke’s NCAA Tournament at-large hopes, Steward shot 10/32 (31.3%) from the field and 4/15 (26.7%) from three. 

Many fans and analysts, including myself, assumed Steward's positive flashes this year would serve as building blocks for a breakout sophomore season. At least as of January, ESPN NBA Draft Analyst Mike Schmitz was also in that camp when he appeared on the broadcast of a matchup with Clemson to break down the Blue Devils' professional prospects. Schmitz had the following to say about Steward: 

"[Steward] is a guy I’ve always been high on when you look toward the future. I’m not sure he’s a 'this year' guy, but he’s a jet with the basketball, he’s ultra-skilled, and he’s improving as a shooter."

ESPN’s 2021 NBA Draft Big Board currently has Steward ranked as the #63 overall prospect, which would indicate that not a lot has changed in terms of his stock since January. If the chaotic 2020-21 season is to be Steward’s only one in Durham, his decision to declare early for the draft could be one of the more puzzling ones in program history. It doesn’t take a master’s degree in statistics to realize that only 60 players get drafted every season. As of now, Steward is right on that cut line, and will have to blow scouts away in the draft combine and his workouts to secure that he’ll even get selected.

For all the positives Schmitz pointed out, he didn’t have enough time (most of the segment was focused on Jalen Johnson) to mention any of Steward’s weaknesses that will serve as big obstacles as he tries to ascend up draft boards. At just 6’2”, Steward almost certainly is going to be expected to play some point guard at the next level, something he almost never did this season at Duke. He was on the court for just 21 offensive possessions all season without either Jordan Goldwire or Jeremy Roach alongside him, and it’s worth noting that Duke scored approximately 95 points per 100 possessions in this small sample size. Sure, Steward had plenty of the ball – his 22.8% usage was second on the team after Johnson’s departure and just a fraction below Matthew Hurt’s. But being the primary facilitator on offense is just not something he was asked to do in his freshman season, and he’ll have to learn it on the fly during the draft process if he’s keeping his name in the pool.

Steward’s lack of size also will play a factor defensively at the next level, just as it did at Duke. With at least one of Roach and Goldwire almost always on the floor with him, he matched up with a lot of two-guards and even some threes this year. In either case, he compromised a lot in terms of both height and weight – he’s listed at just 163 pounds on Duke’s roster. While he showed decent awareness and ability to stay in front of the ball, the team was almost a full point better per 100 possessions with him off the floor defensively than on, though that might not be entirely fair to DJ. Especially in the case of Duke’s three guard lineups, the lack of size across the board was a big reason why they gave up over 105 points per 100 possessions, though it’s worth noting that their defensive rating was far more palatable when they also had Mark Williams behind them protecting the rim. When Steward was featured in lineups that didn't also contain Goldwire and Roach together, his defensive on/off split actually flipped to positive by over a full point per 100 possessions.

Steward's decision to leave for the NBA could leave Duke thin at guard next season. Credit: Duke Report

Steward will certainly have to add weight to his frame if he wants to both land and stick in the league, but his lack of height is unfortunately out of his control. Fortunately for him, the list of combo guards 6’2” or shorter in the NBA is actually longer than you might expect, with Donovan Mitchell, Collin Sexton, and Terry Rozier at the forefront. The bad news for Steward is that he doesn’t have nearly the statistical or the athletic profile of the top-tier guys on this list based on his collegiate performance – the three mentioned were all selected in the top 16 picks of their respective drafts. Had he decided to return to Duke, he would’ve had an opportunity to increase his draft stock dramatically with more offensive consistency and a full off-season to improve physically.

There seems to be a growing notion these days that players want to get to the NBA as quickly as possible. While there’s a large problem with the NCAA and the amateurism of college athletes, the idea that players can’t increase their potential earnings while staying in college for an extra season is a myth. Kira Lewis Jr., who Mike Schmitz actually compared Steward’s potential sophomore season to in the aforementioned Clemson game interview, shot up draft boards last season at Alabama and became a lottery selection. Luke Kennard is another homegrown example of a lottery pick that was hardly on the peripheries of the NBA radar after his freshman season. There are certainly cases where a player and his family’s needs outweigh everything else, and far be it from me to disagree with that if it was the driving factor in Steward’s decision. If it wasn’t, the NBA certainly wasn’t going anywhere for DJ.

From Duke’s perspective, this is the by far the biggest blow of the four players who’ve left the program so far this off-season. With Hurt also likely to throw his name into draft consideration, Steward would’ve been the only returning player to average over ten points per game in 2020-21. Now, the only guards left on the roster for next season are Wendell Moore Jr. and Jeremy Roach, with neither's performance this past season inspiring a lot of confidence. Duke will hope for immediate reinforcements in the form of Trevor Keels, ESPN’s fourth-ranked shooting guard in the class of 2021. Keels will announce his college decision tomorrow, and while the prognosticators seem to think he’s heading to Durham, nothing is a sure thing in college basketball these days. Even if Keels does choose the Blue Devils over Kentucky, Villanova, and Virginia, Duke should look to be active in picking up at least one more guard for the upcoming season, either in recruitment or the transfer portal. 

A final note on Steward, assuming he’s played his final game as a Duke Blue Devil: Like most players, he’s been dreaming of going to the NBA for a long time, and he’s taking his chance. While it’s arguably not the optimal time to maximize his draft stock, he’s going to get a chance to play professionally in some fashion whether he’s drafted or not and he's betting on himself. The decision certainly hurts Duke’s outlook for next season, but the show must go on. Here’s hoping that DJ can prove himself right and the doubters, such as myself, wrong and go on to a successful NBA career like so many Duke one-and-done’s have before him. Best of luck, DJ!

#4: Patrick Tapé re-enters the transfer portal

For the third time in less than a week, a Duke Blue Devil has entered his name into the ever-growing transfer portal. Patrick Tapé, the 6’9” graduate transfer from Columbia, will leave Durham after one season in which he failed to make an impact for a Duke team that desperately could’ve used the help up front. The news was first reported by Steve Wiseman of the Charlotte News & Observer. With his final year of eligibility still intact thanks to the NCAA waiver for all winter sports athletes, Tapé will take another bite at the apple and try to land at a school that will allow him to regain his 2018-19 form, where he averaged 11.3 points and 5.9 rebounds per game.

Patrick’s road to get to Durham was an odd one in and of itself. He sat out the entirety of the 2019-20 season at Columbia with a toe injury that seemingly shouldn’t have forced him to miss the entire year, but he chose to punt on his senior season and transfer up a level where he’d be eligible to play immediately. Tapé committed to playing his final season at Duke on March 24th, 2020, only to decommit and re-open his recruitment nine days later. Ultimately, he decided that Duke was the best fit for him after all and recommitted on April 5th, becoming the program's first-ever graduate transfer.

Tapé struggled to find rotation minutes in his only season in Durham.

While Tapé was never expected to provide anything more than rotational depth in the frontcourt, it’d be hard to find a more inconsequential Duke transfer. Having played just 45 minutes on the shortened season, he was never able to carve out a consistent role in the rotation. Unfortunately for Tapé, his only career start for the Blue Devils in a win at Notre Dame was immediately followed by a back injury that put him on the shelf for a few weeks (the team as a whole also didn’t have much game action during this time either due to COVID-related cancellations). Patrick was used sparingly after returning from the injury, but he did feature in three of Duke’s final four games of the season. 

The sample size was very small, but the on/off splits did in fact point towards Tapé being a positive player for Duke this year. While the offense took a hit with him on the court, Duke’s defense was almost 17 (!!) points per 100 possessions better with Tapé on the floor than off. He was one of just five players on the roster with a positive impact on defense according to on/off splits. Had he been able to stay healthy throughout the course of the season, it would’ve been interesting to see if he could’ve earned more minutes in the rotation as an impactful defensive player, or if these gaudy splits would’ve regressed towards a less impressive mean. 

While the loss of Tapé won’t send shockwaves to the projected 2021-22 roster, there is still a glaring need to improve a mediocre defense that, as of today, ranked 78th nationally for the season, according to Ken Pomeroy. The loss of Goldwire is obviously far more significant, but Tapé’s departure means there are only three net positive defensive players left on the roster as it stands. If the Blue Devils are hoping to regain their stature as one of the elite teams in college basketball, they’ll have to shore up a defensive unit that could at best be described as shoddy this past season. Doing so will require both the returning players to make a sizeable leap forward, as well as the incoming freshmen to make an immediate defensive impact –  something that is more rare than a team usually built around one-and-done’s would prefer.

#3: Jordan Goldwire enters the transfer portal

NEWS: Senior Jordan Goldwire will enter name in portal as a grad transfer. pic.twitter.com/bQcUM1Ys8l

— Duke Men’s Basketball (@DukeMBB) March 27, 2021

College basketball silly season is officially underway, and the news is coming fast and furious. According to CBS Sports’ Matt Norlander, there are already over 1000 names in the transfer portal, and counting. The news of Duke’s second defection this off-season broke Saturday afternoon, when it was announced that senior guard Jordan Goldwire would be entering his name into the transfer portal after four seasons at Duke. Goldwire will be leaving Durham with his degree and will likely be pursuing a chance for a bigger role in the 2021-22 season.

The news of Goldwire’s departure should not come as a surprise, as the final home game of the season on February 27th was billed as his final game in Cameron Indoor Stadium by Duke’s social media team. The only question was whether or not the 2020-21 ACC All-Defensive Team selection would be moving on from college basketball to either pursue a professional career or other interests, or if he was going to be moving on to play one last season at another school with his extra year of eligibility granted by the NCAA to all winter sport athletes due to the coronavirus pandemic.

When Jordan signed with the Blue Devils in 2017 out of Norcross High School, few could’ve imagined the impact he’d have in his time at Duke. At the time, he was the 47th-ranked point guard in the class by ESPN, and many thought his signing was meant to simply fill a backup point guard role that would rarely see the court. This was, in fact, the case for the first year and a half of his Duke career, but everything seemed to change when his relentless defensive pressure helped spark a 23-point comeback at Louisville on February 12th, 2019. Later that season, he played a then career-high 28 minutes in an epic ACC Tournament semifinal win over North Carolina and even scored the go-ahead basket with under two minutes left in the game simply by being in the right place at the right time. 

From the start of his junior season and on, Goldwire was a trusted member of Coach K’s rotation, playing 24.1 minutes per game as a junior and 28.5 as a senior this season. While his offensive game never fully developed into anything to write home about, his three-point shot became respectable enough (34.3% in his last two seasons) that he wasn’t a liability offensively. This allowed him to stay on the court for long stretches and do what he does best, pick up the other team’s lead guard the entire length of the floor and try and cause havoc, which he did quite often. In his senior season, Goldwire finished second in the ACC in steals and fourth in Defensive Box Plus/Minus (DBPM), according to Sports-Reference. 

Unfortunately for Goldwire, he didn't get to play his final season at Duke in front of the Cameron Crazies.

While Jordan’s departure was expected, it doesn’t mean the Blue Devils won’t miss him next season. Goldwire always had his limitations, but he made an impact on the game that went beyond his 5.8 points, 4.0 assists and 3.0 rebounds per game as a senior. He was the only player on the 2020-21 roster to have positive on/off splits on both offense and defense, and he ranked fourth on the team in terms of overall on/off splits among players with at least 100 minutes played at approximately +3.0 points per 100 possessions. He was even more impactful when just looking at games against only conference opponents, with an on/off split of approximately +4.9 points per 100 possessions. 

It’s impossible to predict what Duke’s point guard rotation will look like in 2021-22 given the frenetic nature of the college basketball offseason, but if we’re to assume Jeremy Roach will be a big part of it, then it’s worthwhile to juxtapose his splits with Goldwire’s. With Roach on the court and Goldwire off it, Duke’s offense scored approximately 109.8 points per 100 possessions, which was over four points better than lineups with Goldwire on and Roach off. On the flip side, lineups with Roach on and Goldwire off gave up over 105 points per 100 possessions defensively, over seven points worse than the converse of Goldwire on and Roach off. 

These numbers should surprise nobody and do a great job of highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of both from this past season. While Roach could certainly improve offensively from his freshman year, it’s his defense that will be under the microscope with Goldwire no longer in Durham. Krzyzewski’s defensive scheme, while perhaps outdated, requires guards to be able to bring pressure at the point of attack. Roach’s freshman season was a far cry away from what Duke will need to run that same system next year, if we're to assume (as we should) that Coach K won’t be making any philosophical overhauls to the defense. 

As for Goldwire, while it’s too early to have any indications on where he might be playing basketball next season, it’s important to wish him the best and thank him for a great for years as a Duke Blue Devil. As mentioned in talking about Brakefield’s transfer, we’ve seen many underclassmen decide to leave the program when they don’t receive a heavy dose of minutes early on. Goldwire chose to stick it out for all four years and wound up developing into a reliable role player as an upperclassman who made a positive impact on the team. Thanks for a great four years, Jordan, and best of luck at your next stop!

#2: Jaemyn Brakefield enters the transfer portal

NEWS: Jaemyn Brakefield to enter transfer portal. pic.twitter.com/Go2ae1R5kY

— Duke Men’s Basketball (@DukeMBB) March 24, 2021

The Duke Basketball off-season doesn’t officially begin until the first news of player departure hits, and we got that last night with Jaemyn Brakefield announcing he’d be leaving the program after just one season in Durham. It seems inevitable that all college sports are heading the way of allowing athletes to transfer once and compete immediately the next season, which means it may not be long until Brakefield is able to take the court for a new team. Even if the rule isn’t passed before the upcoming season, another waiver similar to the one granted during the 2020-21 season is certainly possible. While the pros and cons of the one-time transfer rule are up for debate, the current landscape gives players facing a potential minutes crunch zero incentive to stick around and waste another year of eligibility if they feel they should be playing more. Without knowing what other dominos will fall this off-season, the 2021-22 frontcourt could be very crowded, giving the former #31 overall recruit every reason to try and find an opportunity to find more time on the court somewhere else. 

While there are some obvious exceptions, a lack of playing time is a common theme across many of Duke’s transfer over the past decade. From Alex Murphy to Olek Czyz, players who have found themselves outside of Coach K’s usually tight rotations have often opted for greener pastures after reading the writing on the wall. The argument is always made that the coaching staff should do more to get these players more minutes to keep them in the program, and many will say this about Jaemyn as well. While Brakefield did go through stretches this season on the outside looking in like those who’ve transferred before him, there was not a lack of opportunity in this case. When Jalen Johnson decided to end his career at Duke prematurely, there were plenty of minutes on the table in the frontcourt. For Jaemyn, it was what he didn’t do in the playing time he was given combined with the emergence of Mark Williams that ultimately sealed his fate.

Despite starting the season red hot from three, Brakefield made just 3/22 (13.6%) from long distance in the calendar year. His most consistent run of playing time came at the start of ACC play when Jalen Johnson was nursing his foot injury, but he couldn’t take advantage. In these four games against Notre Dame, Boston College, Wake Forest, and Virginia Tech, Brakefield averaged just 3.5 points and 3.0 rebounds in 21.5 minutes per game, shooting 37.5% from the field and 28.6% from three. His most significant contribution in a Duke uniform came on February 20th, when his block on Kihei Clark and driving reverse layup over Jay Huff propelled Duke to an upset win over #7 Virginia in Cameron Indoor Stadium. Jaemyn had 11 points, 5 rebounds, and 4 blocks in the win, as well as an all-time reaction photo (see below). Brakefield’s success would unfortunately not continue, as he made just four of his last seventeen shot attempts (23.5%) to end the season, including a 1/8 clunker at Georgia Tech in a loss that arguably ended Duke’s NCAA Tournament hopes.

Jaemyn Brakefield strikes a pose after his go-ahead reverse layup against UVA. Source: @DukeMBB

The good news from the Blue Devils’ perspective is that they were a much better team this season when Brakefield wasn’t in the game. With Brakefield on the court, Duke’s offense was almost six points per 100 possessions worse than it was when he wasn’t in the game, and the defense allowed over two points per 100 possessions more with him on the court as well. This on/off split of approximately -8 points per 100 possessions was the worst among all of Duke’s rotation players this season and ballooned all the way below -10 points per 100 possessions when only looking at games against conference opponents. Every player on the roster that played at least 20 minutes paired with Brakefield was a negative on/off combination as well, with the exception of, ironically enough, Jalen Johnson, who was approximately +14 points per 100 possessions on the court with Brakefield in a limited sample size. 

On the other side of things, losing a player with talent is never good news. Although these transfer decisions have tended to prove a lack of minutes correct on several occasions, there’s a Semi Ojeleye who stars in his new home for every Derryck Thornton who doesn’t. Where Jaemyn falls on that scale will play out over time, but while his freshman year statistical profile was certainly rough, there is talent there for sure. It’d be foolish to assume he wouldn’t improve over the course of his collegiate career, and hopefully he can find the right program best suited for his skills in the future. Duke fans should have no hard feelings towards the kid; he gave his all for the entirety of a season unlike any we’ve ever seen before. I'll certainly miss his post footwork. Best of luck, Jaemyn!

Projecting ahead for Duke, as mentioned before, the frontcourt depth should not be any worse for wear without Brakefield. While Matthew Hurt will likely leave Durham for the NBA after his prodigious sophomore season, Duke is bringing in two forwards who should eat up plenty of minutes in A.J. Griffin and Paolo Banchero. Assuming Mark Williams and Henry Coleman III are both returning to Durham (which is probably a foolish thing to assume in modern college basketball), the roles in Duke’s frontcourt should be pretty well defined for a change.  Let’s just hold our breath and hope that nothing happens in the next few months to throw a wrench into this plan. As always, no news is good news this time of year.