Tuesday, April 20, 2021

#10: Henry Coleman III enters the transfer portal

Just when it seemed the Duke roster for next season was finally starting to take shape, the turbulent 2021 college basketball off-season struck yet again. On Tuesday afternoon, it was announced that freshman forward Henry Coleman III would be entering the transfer portal, the fourth Blue Devil to do so in the past month. There's been plenty of personnel turnover in the Duke program recently with the recent influx of one-and-done players, but this amount of players coming and going is unlike anything we’ve ever seen before. What’s perhaps most unfortunate is that I can say with zero confidence that’s it’s unlike anything we’ll ever see again, as this just seems to be the direction college sports are headed.

Coleman’s freshman season at Duke was rather mundane, but he did have a few big moments in home games against North Carolina and Virginia when the team needed a lift. Although he was rather raw offensively and could’ve even been a redshirt candidate in a normal season, Coleman was an incredibly effective defensive player whenever his number was called upon. In the 95 minutes Coleman played, Duke was over 13 points better defensively per 100 possessions. Obviously, that’s a very small sample size, but the eye test backed up Coleman’s impact on that end. Even if his offense didn’t come around in time for the 2021-22 season, he would’ve been a welcome presence on the roster for his energy and effort on both ends.

The immediate question that has to be asked is whether or not the acquisition of Marquette transfer Theo John pushed Coleman out the door. While John is more of a traditional center than Coleman, the two would presumably be competing for the same frontcourt minutes off the bench. Only those inside the program will know the exact order in which these events went down, but if John is the reason for Coleman’s departure, it further emphasizes how badly Coach K has mismanaged players over the past six seasons in order to try and win a sixth championship. If Duke doesn’t win it all this season, this is a bad gamble by the staff, plain and simple.

Coleman's defensive presence wasn't enough to earn consistent minutes last season. Source: Raleigh News & Observer

From Coleman’s perspective, this may wind up being a great decision for the development of his career. The failures of late by the Duke coaching staff to develop players ranked outside of the top fifty is no secret. As the 54th-ranked prospect in the 2020 class, Coleman’s development simply was not at the top of the list of priorities. It’s sad to see yet another young player leave who would’ve helped Blue Devil teams in the future, but in the era where kids can transfer and play immediately, who is going to want to sit around and wait multiple seasons for a chance at playing time?

With Coleman’s departure, the six-man 2020 recruiting class that ranked second nationally is down to just two remaining players, Jeremy Roach and Mark Williams. What is the point of bringing in these heralded recruiting classes if the players aren’t even in Durham for a full season? Not since the 2015 class has Duke retained over 50% of its freshmen in a given season and 80% of that group was gone by the end of year two. It’d be one thing if this was a proven model for winning in college basketball, but it simply isn’t. Teams with experience have a big edge in the winner-take-all games of March and April, but the Duke coaching staff doesn’t even seem to care. Sure, experience is easier to attain than ever these days with the transfer portal, but there’s something to be said for groups with roster continuity that have been through the heat of battle together (see Duke's 2010 roster). 

Obviously, the 2020-21 team endured plenty of ups and downs on their way to missing the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1995, but I don’t think anybody could’ve expected this type of roster purge. Counting Jalen Johnson, Duke has now lost seven of their eleven scholarship players from the start of the 2020-21 season and we haven’t even reached May. The transfer portal is closing in on 1,500 names and it’d be naïve to assume this is Duke’s last player to enter it this spring. One thing is clear; the Duke coaching staff is all-in on another run for a championship this season. If any returning player on the roster wasn’t happy with their projected role on the 2021-22 team, they had every right to seek other opportunities. Henry Coleman III did just that and we wish him nothing but the best. 

Monday, April 19, 2021

#9: Duke adds 2021 four-star PG Jaylen Blakes

After last week’s additions to the frontcourt, the only glaring hole on Duke’s 2021-22 roster, at least as it stands today, was at point guard. Duke struggled to get consistent production from the lead guard spot last season and while neither Jeremy Roach nor Wendell Moore have yet announced any intentions to leave Durham, there was certainly room for another player capable of filling minutes at the position. On Monday afternoon, the void was filled when four-star guard Jaylen Blakes became the fourth member of Duke’s 2021 recruiting class. He officially committed to the Blue Devils just one week after receiving an offer from the coaching staff. With minutes to be had at the guard positions, Blakes is likely to be a factor in Duke’s rotation right away.

Blakes, the 86th-ranked 2021 prospect according to ESPN, had plenty of other power conference offers on the table before Duke swooped in. He attended the same high school, Blair Academy, as former Blue Devil Luol Deng and was the winningest player in program history. Jaylen is an intriguing prospect offensively, but his defensive ability is what will matter the most early on in his Duke career as he attempts to carve out a role. He has been reported to have 6’8” wingspan despite standing just 6’2” and should give Duke a reliable defensive option at guard if Roach cannot show significant improvements from his freshman season on that end. By all accounts, Blakes is a hard-working young man and should have no problem finding a spot in Duke’s rotation next season.

Jaylen Blakes has a chance to play a key role in Duke's guard rotation. Source: Blue Devil Nation

Unfortunately for Duke, the recent history with players in this range of the recruiting rankings isn’t very favorable. While the expectation would be for signees outside of the top 40 to stay at the same school for multiple years and blossom into starting-caliber players as upperclassmen, the examples of this are growing fewer and further between with each passing season. Duke’s recent track record of player development is about as bleak as it gets, which is especially disappointing from a program that used to be so reliant on star juniors and seniors. Not many guys are hanging around the program for four years lately, and those that are aren’t developing to anything more than role players.

Duke’s recent developmental failures don’t spell doom and gloom for Blakes, however. The program is “championship or bust” every season these days as Coach K’s career winds down, and Jaylen is filling a specific role on a team that will presumably start the season ranked in the top ten yet again this year. Sophomore Jeremy Roach will most likely be the starting point guard to start the season, but that doesn’t mean he can’t lose minutes. After all, Roach started 18 of 24 games this past season and still found himself either relegated to off-ball duties or on the bench entirely for important stretches. Jordan Goldwire played 28.5 minutes per game on last year’s team just by playing mistake free on offense and shining on the defensive end. If Blakes comes in right away and earns Coach K’s trust on both sides, he could find himself playing in plenty of big spots.

Friday, April 16, 2021

#8: Duke adds transfers Bates Jones and Theo John

At this point, it’s becoming cliché to talk about the chaotic nature of this off-season. The deck is being reshuffled across the country on an hourly basis and there’s no sign of it slowing down anytime soon. What may have caught a lot of longtime followers by surprise is that Duke is now officially the beneficiary of transfer news, and it’s not just one player. That’s right; Mike Krzyzewski is finally embracing the transfer portal, a rare sign of adaptation from the 74-year-old. Just in the last 24 hours, Duke managed to add two super seniors in Davidson’s Bates Jones and Marquette’s Theo John. The two will bolster a Duke roster that, after the news of Matthew Hurt’s departure, only featured three scholarship players at power forward and center.

After playing four years for the Davidson Wildcats, Jones will head to Durham for his fifth and final season of collegiate eligibility. He’s following in the footsteps of his brother, Daniel, who spent four years playing quarterback at Duke himself before being picked in the first round of the 2019 NFL Draft by the New York Giants. Bates was never a star in his time at Davidson, but he did feature in the rotation as an upperclassman and even started five games in his career. The 6’8” power forward wasn’t a primary scoring option for the Wildcats when he was on the court, but he did shoot more than half of his career field goal attempts from three-point range and converted at a percentage higher than any returning player on Duke’s team shot in 2020-21. It seems unlikely that he’ll feature prominently in the rotation for the Blue Devils this coming season, but he does provide depth and experience for a team that only had one senior on the roster going into this week.

Jones will give Duke another frontcourt option off the bench in 2021-22. Source: Davidson College Athletics

While Jones doesn’t figure to play much of a part in Duke’s plans for 2021-22, Theo John was a three-year starter for Marquette and the defensive backbone for Steve Wojciechowski’s Golden Eagles. The Marquette teams anchored by the Minnesota native were never stout defensively, but it was far from the fault of John. In his four seasons in Milwaukee, Theo put his 7'4" wingspan to good use, posting a career block percentage of 8.4%. For comparison, Marques Bolden posted a block percentage of 8.5% in 2018-19. As the previous entry about Hurt’s departure already mentioned, Duke only had one player they could count on for rim protection last season, and John will be a welcome addition to the roster in that regard.

On the offensive end, John is far more limited. He did see a modest increase in usage as a senior due to the departure of Markus Howard, but his output was still very minimal. He’s very well built at 6’9” and 245 pounds, but he’s not much of a finisher outside of the restricted area and his post repertoire could best be described as robotic. He turned the ball over on 22.5% of his possessions, which is far too high for someone a player in his role. To help paint a picture, it’s roughly equivalent to Javin DeLaurier’s career turnover percentage for Duke. On the bright side, he did improve his free throw percentage considerably from 56% as a junior to a very respectable 74% as a senior and even hit three out of four shots from three.

John could play a vital defensive role for Duke next season. Source: Marquette University Athletics

With the slight uptick in offensive responsibility, other areas of John’s game dipped; his offensive rebound (7.3%), defensive rebound (14.3%), and block (6.0%) percentages were all career lows as a senior. Hopefully with a stronger group of talent around him at Duke, John can get back to doing what he does best. One could assume that a three-year starter in the Big East wouldn’t commit to Duke without at least some guarantees in terms of playing time and role definition, but Duke shouldn’t need John to do any of the things he isn’t already well suited to do. If he’s been brought in to be a low-usage backup to Mark Williams at the five, he’s a great pickup from the portal. The worst case scenario is that his signing was a panic move to fill the hole that could hypothetically be left by a surprise departure from Williams. While he’d obviously still be needed in that case, Williams’ exit would be the toughest pill to swallow yet this off-season for Blue Devil fans and would put a serious damper onto any championship aspirations.

Saying Duke’s roster is unlikely to change between now and the start of the 2021-22 season would be a foolish endeavor, but no matter what is still to come, Duke at least has taken the necessary steps to solidify its frontcourt. The one-time transfer rule is officially here to stay, and taking advantage of the portal is going to become second nature for all programs soon enough. The biggest positive for Duke is that it seems finally ready to use it as a positive way to bolster the roster and not just accept losing disgruntled players to it. They dipped their toes in last off-season with Patrick Tapé, and while his impact was minimal, the staff is thankfully not afraid to test the market again. If anything, the bar was set so low by the program’s first-ever graduate transfer that these two should have no problem coming in and making an impact.

Thursday, April 15, 2021

#7: Matthew Hurt declares for NBA Draft

It had been a little too quiet on the news front regarding Duke’s off-season roster turnover, but on Wednesday afternoon, it was finally confirmed that Matthew Hurt would be leaving Duke and moving onto the NBA. This headline should come as a surprise to no one, as Hurt was a consensus top fifteen recruit in 2019 who never intended to spend more than one season in college to begin with. After an up-and-down freshman campaign, Hurt needed to return to college if he hoped to ever hear his name called in the NBA Draft. As a sophomore, Hurt had about as good of an offensive season as he could’ve hoped and played his way back onto the NBA radar, albeit as a potential second round pick.

While Hurt improved in a lot of areas from year one to year two, the biggest difference between Hurt’s two seasons at Duke was the twenty pounds he added in the off-season. In the last ten games of the 2019-20 season, Hurt averaged just 6.4 points in 15.7 minutes per game. Even his shooting tailed off dramatically (40.8% from the field, 32.0% from three) and he lost most of his minutes to the revelation that was redshirt senior Justin Robinson. Despite his advanced skillset, he wasn’t physically ready to be a star at the collegiate level. The extra weight allowed Hurt to withstand the wear and tear of the full season and do what he does best: shoot the basketball. While the numbers may not even do his shooting clips this season justice, let’s give it a shot:

Simply put, his numbers were absolutely absurd. According to Sports-Reference, he’s one of only four players since 1992-93 to score at least 18 points per game and hit at least 50 threes while shooting 55% or better from the field and 40% or better from three. He was the second-most efficient offensive player in college basketball this season, per Synergy Sports. The team was +4.97 points per possessions better per 100 possessions with him on the court, second on the team behind only Jeremy Roach. The offensive end will have to be Hurt’s calling card at the next level as well. He didn’t often stretch his range out as far as the NBA three-point line this season, but there should be little doubt a shooter of his ability can do so. With shooting and spacing becoming more valuable every passing season in the NBA, Hurt is certain to get opportunities to carve out a role at the next level.

In spite of all the positives, Hurt was still a flawed player in his prodigious sophomore season on the defensive end. Duke’s defense was almost two full points better with Hurt off the floor than it was with him on. The roster construction didn’t help him any defensively; he played approximately 500 minutes this season without a center on the court next to him. As you could expect, these units also struggled to rebound missed shots by the opponent. Hurt did improve as a rebounder in his second season, but he still left a lot to be desired. Units the paired Hurt with Mark Williams, the best rebounder and rim protector on the team, improved in both areas and even were a slight net positive defensively compared to Duke’s usual productivity, but they still gave up almost 102.6 points per 100 possessions. Any concerns about Matt’s potential to stick in the NBA will start at this end of the court. He can’t be asked to play the center with his lack of rim protection, so he’s going to have to develop into a guy who can defend NBA forwards if he ever wants to see consistent time.

As a sophomore, Hurt posted arguably the best shooting season in program history. Source: The Fayetteville Observer

Projecting ahead for Duke, Hurt’s offensive prowess will certainly be missed. He was the only player on the 2020-21 roster that could be counted on to score consistently, specifically in late clock situations, and Duke has no immediate answer to replace him. As it currently stands, Duke won't return a single player who's ever averaged over 10 points per game before at the collegiate level, which means they'll once again be counting on a large percentage of their points to come via incoming freshmen. With that said, a team without his defensive limitations should be able to progress greatly on the end where they need to see improvement the most. When Hurt was guarding in the post, opposing teams would attack him. When Hurt was guarding on the perimeter, opposing teams would hunt for a switch to try and drive at him. He fouled out of four games in the shortened season and came one foul away in seven more. Replacing Hurt in the lineup with Paolo Banchero, a prospect touted as a versatile defender, should make a big difference next season defensively.

With his career at Duke at a close, the retrospective on Hurt is a mixed bag, though many of the reasons were out of his control. On one hand, Hurt just turned in arguably the greatest shooting season in program history. While he didn’t have nearly the volume of somebody like J.J. Redick, his efficiency (65.1 eFG%) is unmatched by anybody who’s ever shot more than 100 threes in a season for the Blue Devils – the only other Duke player with an eFG% above 60% on such volume since 1992-93 is Andre Dawkins. On the other hand, Hurt is the first Blue Devil since Mike Krzyzewski first took over the program to play two full seasons in Durham and not make the NCAA Tournament. While coronavirus is mostly to blame for that, it’s hard to consider his Duke legacy when he doesn’t have any notable postseason moments to think back on. He also scored just 21 points in four career games against North Carolina, failing to leave any sort of imprint on the rivalry. With all that said, Duke fans were fortunate to watch Matt Hurt in a Duke uniform this season at all, let alone the shooting exhibition he put on. We’re wishing him nothing but the best of luck as he tries to add his name to the long list of former Blue Devils on an NBA roster next season.

Friday, April 2, 2021

#6: Duke lands 2021 five-star SG Trevor Keels

After hearing of four different roster defections – five if you count associate head coach Nate James – in the past nine days, the Blue Devils were due for something positive to break their way. The first good news of the 2021 off-season finally came on Friday afternoon, when Trevor Keels announced on national television that he’d be signing a letter of intent to play for Duke this upcoming season. The five-star recruit from Fairfax, VA is the 19th-ranked overall prospect on ESPN’s class of 2021 rankings and the fourth highest among all shooting guards. 

As mentioned in the previous entry, Duke will hope for Keels to immediately fill the void created last night by DJ Steward’s departure. While the addition of Keels may lead some Duke fans to think of how the two could’ve hypothetically fit together had Steward stayed, it’s worth noting the improbability of both Steward returning for a sophomore season and Keels joining him. It was always going to be one or the other at best for Duke, and only time will tell which would’ve been the better option. One thing is for sure, Keels has everything that Steward lacked in terms of size, clocking in at 6’5” and 210 pounds on most recruiting sites. 

While Keels and Steward is a duo that will likely never play for Duke at the same time, Keels and Jeremy Roach already have a lot of familiarity together as former high school teammates. The two led Paul VI High School to the VISSA Championship in 2020 before Roach graduated and moved on to Durham. After selecting Duke, Keels cited his relationships with both Roach and Coach K as major factors that led to his commitment. The reunion should help Keels as he adjusts to playing at the collegiate level. Just as importantly, it should also help Roach's level of comfortability after a turbulent freshman season.

The Blue Devils will hope for Keels to fill the void left by DJ Steward's departure. Source: Lexington Herald Leader

With three of the top twenty recruits in the fold for next season, Duke will try once again to parlay a loaded recruiting class into the program’s sixth NCAA Championship. While lightning did strike once for Duke with a similar, but not identical, formula in 2015, there isn’t a Quinn Cook or Amile Jefferson you can point to on the 2021-22 roster. Player continuity tends to win the day more often than not, even in the current hectic climate of college basketball. For the Blue Devils to return to the top of the mountain, the forward steps taken by the returning players will be every bit as important as the shiny new toys arriving on campus in the fall.

Top prospects of all shapes and sizes have come through the program over the last ten years, and we’ve seen that it can be hard to project just how much of an impact some of these freshman will make in their one (and usually only) season in Durham. Keels has a great physical build for his age – he won’t turn 18 until August – and a sweet shooting stroke, but what could serve him best are the intangibles that his high school coach Glenn Farello raved about in an interview with the Washington Post:

“[Keels] has a complete commitment to the team winning, to being a great teammate, to doing whatever it takes. He always has.”

After a 13-11 season, a commitment to winning is exactly what this Blue Devil team needs. Who all Keels will be sharing the court with this season is still up in the air, but he should be primed to make an immediate impact for a team needing a serious jolt on the perimeter. 

Thursday, April 1, 2021

#5: DJ Steward declares for NBA Draft

The departures just keep on coming for Duke. In what was already a hectic news day on Tobacco Road, freshman guard DJ Steward announced his intentions to declare for the 2021 NBA Draft and sign with an agent on Thursday evening. While the draft process has been revised over recent years to allow players to sign an agent and still maintain their collegiate eligibility, the quotes from both Steward and Coach K (above) certainly seem to have a sense of finality to them. The Chicago native is the fourth Blue Devil to leave the program in the last eight days, and is almost certainly not the last.

Steward arrived at Duke as a highly-touted recruit and immediately put the country on notice in his debut, scoring 24 points and adding 9 rebounds off the bench in a victory over Coppin State. While many were quick to hand him the title of the next great Duke guard, his 0/7 shooting night the following game immediately provided a glimpse of the up-and-down nature that would plague his freshman campaign. He was ultimately Duke’s best scorer in the backcourt and his 13.0 points per game would lead all ACC freshmen, but his streakiness was a big reason why he shot just 42.6% from the field and 34.1% from three. In the three-game losing streak that would provide the final nails in the coffin for Duke’s NCAA Tournament at-large hopes, Steward shot 10/32 (31.3%) from the field and 4/15 (26.7%) from three. 

Many fans and analysts, including myself, assumed Steward's positive flashes this year would serve as building blocks for a breakout sophomore season. At least as of January, ESPN NBA Draft Analyst Mike Schmitz was also in that camp when he appeared on the broadcast of a matchup with Clemson to break down the Blue Devils' professional prospects. Schmitz had the following to say about Steward: 

"[Steward] is a guy I’ve always been high on when you look toward the future. I’m not sure he’s a 'this year' guy, but he’s a jet with the basketball, he’s ultra-skilled, and he’s improving as a shooter."

ESPN’s 2021 NBA Draft Big Board currently has Steward ranked as the #63 overall prospect, which would indicate that not a lot has changed in terms of his stock since January. If the chaotic 2020-21 season is to be Steward’s only one in Durham, his decision to declare early for the draft could be one of the more puzzling ones in program history. It doesn’t take a master’s degree in statistics to realize that only 60 players get drafted every season. As of now, Steward is right on that cut line, and will have to blow scouts away in the draft combine and his workouts to secure that he’ll even get selected.

For all the positives Schmitz pointed out, he didn’t have enough time (most of the segment was focused on Jalen Johnson) to mention any of Steward’s weaknesses that will serve as big obstacles as he tries to ascend up draft boards. At just 6’2”, Steward almost certainly is going to be expected to play some point guard at the next level, something he almost never did this season at Duke. He was on the court for just 21 offensive possessions all season without either Jordan Goldwire or Jeremy Roach alongside him, and it’s worth noting that Duke scored approximately 95 points per 100 possessions in this small sample size. Sure, Steward had plenty of the ball – his 22.8% usage was second on the team after Johnson’s departure and just a fraction below Matthew Hurt’s. But being the primary facilitator on offense is just not something he was asked to do in his freshman season, and he’ll have to learn it on the fly during the draft process if he’s keeping his name in the pool.

Steward’s lack of size also will play a factor defensively at the next level, just as it did at Duke. With at least one of Roach and Goldwire almost always on the floor with him, he matched up with a lot of two-guards and even some threes this year. In either case, he compromised a lot in terms of both height and weight – he’s listed at just 163 pounds on Duke’s roster. While he showed decent awareness and ability to stay in front of the ball, the team was almost a full point better per 100 possessions with him off the floor defensively than on, though that might not be entirely fair to DJ. Especially in the case of Duke’s three guard lineups, the lack of size across the board was a big reason why they gave up over 105 points per 100 possessions, though it’s worth noting that their defensive rating was far more palatable when they also had Mark Williams behind them protecting the rim. When Steward was featured in lineups that didn't also contain Goldwire and Roach together, his defensive on/off split actually flipped to positive by over a full point per 100 possessions.

Steward's decision to leave for the NBA could leave Duke thin at guard next season. Credit: Duke Report

Steward will certainly have to add weight to his frame if he wants to both land and stick in the league, but his lack of height is unfortunately out of his control. Fortunately for him, the list of combo guards 6’2” or shorter in the NBA is actually longer than you might expect, with Donovan Mitchell, Collin Sexton, and Terry Rozier at the forefront. The bad news for Steward is that he doesn’t have nearly the statistical or the athletic profile of the top-tier guys on this list based on his collegiate performance – the three mentioned were all selected in the top 16 picks of their respective drafts. Had he decided to return to Duke, he would’ve had an opportunity to increase his draft stock dramatically with more offensive consistency and a full off-season to improve physically.

There seems to be a growing notion these days that players want to get to the NBA as quickly as possible. While there’s a large problem with the NCAA and the amateurism of college athletes, the idea that players can’t increase their potential earnings while staying in college for an extra season is a myth. Kira Lewis Jr., who Mike Schmitz actually compared Steward’s potential sophomore season to in the aforementioned Clemson game interview, shot up draft boards last season at Alabama and became a lottery selection. Luke Kennard is another homegrown example of a lottery pick that was hardly on the peripheries of the NBA radar after his freshman season. There are certainly cases where a player and his family’s needs outweigh everything else, and far be it from me to disagree with that if it was the driving factor in Steward’s decision. If it wasn’t, the NBA certainly wasn’t going anywhere for DJ.

From Duke’s perspective, this is the by far the biggest blow of the four players who’ve left the program so far this off-season. With Hurt also likely to throw his name into draft consideration, Steward would’ve been the only returning player to average over ten points per game in 2020-21. Now, the only guards left on the roster for next season are Wendell Moore Jr. and Jeremy Roach, with neither's performance this past season inspiring a lot of confidence. Duke will hope for immediate reinforcements in the form of Trevor Keels, ESPN’s fourth-ranked shooting guard in the class of 2021. Keels will announce his college decision tomorrow, and while the prognosticators seem to think he’s heading to Durham, nothing is a sure thing in college basketball these days. Even if Keels does choose the Blue Devils over Kentucky, Villanova, and Virginia, Duke should look to be active in picking up at least one more guard for the upcoming season, either in recruitment or the transfer portal. 

A final note on Steward, assuming he’s played his final game as a Duke Blue Devil: Like most players, he’s been dreaming of going to the NBA for a long time, and he’s taking his chance. While it’s arguably not the optimal time to maximize his draft stock, he’s going to get a chance to play professionally in some fashion whether he’s drafted or not and he's betting on himself. The decision certainly hurts Duke’s outlook for next season, but the show must go on. Here’s hoping that DJ can prove himself right and the doubters, such as myself, wrong and go on to a successful NBA career like so many Duke one-and-done’s have before him. Best of luck, DJ!

#19: The Filipowski Theory

Many niche sports fans are familiar with “The Ewing Theory”, a theory originated by Dave Cirilli and popularized by Bill Simmons  which posi...