#4: Patrick Tapé re-enters the transfer portal

For the third time in less than a week, a Duke Blue Devil has entered his name into the ever-growing transfer portal. Patrick Tapé, the 6’9” graduate transfer from Columbia, will leave Durham after one season in which he failed to make an impact for a Duke team that desperately could’ve used the help up front. The news was first reported by Steve Wiseman of the Charlotte News & Observer. With his final year of eligibility still intact thanks to the NCAA waiver for all winter sports athletes, Tapé will take another bite at the apple and try to land at a school that will allow him to regain his 2018-19 form, where he averaged 11.3 points and 5.9 rebounds per game.

Patrick’s road to get to Durham was an odd one in and of itself. He sat out the entirety of the 2019-20 season at Columbia with a toe injury that seemingly shouldn’t have forced him to miss the entire year, but he chose to punt on his senior season and transfer up a level where he’d be eligible to play immediately. Tapé committed to playing his final season at Duke on March 24th, 2020, only to decommit and re-open his recruitment nine days later. Ultimately, he decided that Duke was the best fit for him after all and recommitted on April 5th, becoming the program's first-ever graduate transfer.

Tapé struggled to find rotation minutes in his only season in Durham.

While Tapé was never expected to provide anything more than rotational depth in the frontcourt, it’d be hard to find a more inconsequential Duke transfer. Having played just 45 minutes on the shortened season, he was never able to carve out a consistent role in the rotation. Unfortunately for Tapé, his only career start for the Blue Devils in a win at Notre Dame was immediately followed by a back injury that put him on the shelf for a few weeks (the team as a whole also didn’t have much game action during this time either due to COVID-related cancellations). Patrick was used sparingly after returning from the injury, but he did feature in three of Duke’s final four games of the season. 

The sample size was very small, but the on/off splits did in fact point towards Tapé being a positive player for Duke this year. While the offense took a hit with him on the court, Duke’s defense was almost 17 (!!) points per 100 possessions better with Tapé on the floor than off. He was one of just five players on the roster with a positive impact on defense according to on/off splits. Had he been able to stay healthy throughout the course of the season, it would’ve been interesting to see if he could’ve earned more minutes in the rotation as an impactful defensive player, or if these gaudy splits would’ve regressed towards a less impressive mean. 

While the loss of Tapé won’t send shockwaves to the projected 2021-22 roster, there is still a glaring need to improve a mediocre defense that, as of today, ranked 78th nationally for the season, according to Ken Pomeroy. The loss of Goldwire is obviously far more significant, but Tapé’s departure means there are only three net positive defensive players left on the roster as it stands. If the Blue Devils are hoping to regain their stature as one of the elite teams in college basketball, they’ll have to shore up a defensive unit that could at best be described as shoddy this past season. Doing so will require both the returning players to make a sizeable leap forward, as well as the incoming freshmen to make an immediate defensive impact –  something that is more rare than a team usually built around one-and-done’s would prefer.

#3: Jordan Goldwire enters the transfer portal

NEWS: Senior Jordan Goldwire will enter name in portal as a grad transfer. pic.twitter.com/bQcUM1Ys8l

— Duke Men’s Basketball (@DukeMBB) March 27, 2021

College basketball silly season is officially underway, and the news is coming fast and furious. According to CBS Sports’ Matt Norlander, there are already over 1000 names in the transfer portal, and counting. The news of Duke’s second defection this off-season broke Saturday afternoon, when it was announced that senior guard Jordan Goldwire would be entering his name into the transfer portal after four seasons at Duke. Goldwire will be leaving Durham with his degree and will likely be pursuing a chance for a bigger role in the 2021-22 season.

The news of Goldwire’s departure should not come as a surprise, as the final home game of the season on February 27th was billed as his final game in Cameron Indoor Stadium by Duke’s social media team. The only question was whether or not the 2020-21 ACC All-Defensive Team selection would be moving on from college basketball to either pursue a professional career or other interests, or if he was going to be moving on to play one last season at another school with his extra year of eligibility granted by the NCAA to all winter sport athletes due to the coronavirus pandemic.

When Jordan signed with the Blue Devils in 2017 out of Norcross High School, few could’ve imagined the impact he’d have in his time at Duke. At the time, he was the 47th-ranked point guard in the class by ESPN, and many thought his signing was meant to simply fill a backup point guard role that would rarely see the court. This was, in fact, the case for the first year and a half of his Duke career, but everything seemed to change when his relentless defensive pressure helped spark a 23-point comeback at Louisville on February 12th, 2019. Later that season, he played a then career-high 28 minutes in an epic ACC Tournament semifinal win over North Carolina and even scored the go-ahead basket with under two minutes left in the game simply by being in the right place at the right time. 

From the start of his junior season and on, Goldwire was a trusted member of Coach K’s rotation, playing 24.1 minutes per game as a junior and 28.5 as a senior this season. While his offensive game never fully developed into anything to write home about, his three-point shot became respectable enough (34.3% in his last two seasons) that he wasn’t a liability offensively. This allowed him to stay on the court for long stretches and do what he does best, pick up the other team’s lead guard the entire length of the floor and try and cause havoc, which he did quite often. In his senior season, Goldwire finished second in the ACC in steals and fourth in Defensive Box Plus/Minus (DBPM), according to Sports-Reference. 

Unfortunately for Goldwire, he didn't get to play his final season at Duke in front of the Cameron Crazies.

While Jordan’s departure was expected, it doesn’t mean the Blue Devils won’t miss him next season. Goldwire always had his limitations, but he made an impact on the game that went beyond his 5.8 points, 4.0 assists and 3.0 rebounds per game as a senior. He was the only player on the 2020-21 roster to have positive on/off splits on both offense and defense, and he ranked fourth on the team in terms of overall on/off splits among players with at least 100 minutes played at approximately +3.0 points per 100 possessions. He was even more impactful when just looking at games against only conference opponents, with an on/off split of approximately +4.9 points per 100 possessions. 

It’s impossible to predict what Duke’s point guard rotation will look like in 2021-22 given the frenetic nature of the college basketball offseason, but if we’re to assume Jeremy Roach will be a big part of it, then it’s worthwhile to juxtapose his splits with Goldwire’s. With Roach on the court and Goldwire off it, Duke’s offense scored approximately 109.8 points per 100 possessions, which was over four points better than lineups with Goldwire on and Roach off. On the flip side, lineups with Roach on and Goldwire off gave up over 105 points per 100 possessions defensively, over seven points worse than the converse of Goldwire on and Roach off. 

These numbers should surprise nobody and do a great job of highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of both from this past season. While Roach could certainly improve offensively from his freshman year, it’s his defense that will be under the microscope with Goldwire no longer in Durham. Krzyzewski’s defensive scheme, while perhaps outdated, requires guards to be able to bring pressure at the point of attack. Roach’s freshman season was a far cry away from what Duke will need to run that same system next year, if we're to assume (as we should) that Coach K won’t be making any philosophical overhauls to the defense. 

As for Goldwire, while it’s too early to have any indications on where he might be playing basketball next season, it’s important to wish him the best and thank him for a great for years as a Duke Blue Devil. As mentioned in talking about Brakefield’s transfer, we’ve seen many underclassmen decide to leave the program when they don’t receive a heavy dose of minutes early on. Goldwire chose to stick it out for all four years and wound up developing into a reliable role player as an upperclassman who made a positive impact on the team. Thanks for a great four years, Jordan, and best of luck at your next stop!

#2: Jaemyn Brakefield enters the transfer portal

NEWS: Jaemyn Brakefield to enter transfer portal. pic.twitter.com/Go2ae1R5kY

— Duke Men’s Basketball (@DukeMBB) March 24, 2021

The Duke Basketball off-season doesn’t officially begin until the first news of player departure hits, and we got that last night with Jaemyn Brakefield announcing he’d be leaving the program after just one season in Durham. It seems inevitable that all college sports are heading the way of allowing athletes to transfer once and compete immediately the next season, which means it may not be long until Brakefield is able to take the court for a new team. Even if the rule isn’t passed before the upcoming season, another waiver similar to the one granted during the 2020-21 season is certainly possible. While the pros and cons of the one-time transfer rule are up for debate, the current landscape gives players facing a potential minutes crunch zero incentive to stick around and waste another year of eligibility if they feel they should be playing more. Without knowing what other dominos will fall this off-season, the 2021-22 frontcourt could be very crowded, giving the former #31 overall recruit every reason to try and find an opportunity to find more time on the court somewhere else. 

While there are some obvious exceptions, a lack of playing time is a common theme across many of Duke’s transfer over the past decade. From Alex Murphy to Olek Czyz, players who have found themselves outside of Coach K’s usually tight rotations have often opted for greener pastures after reading the writing on the wall. The argument is always made that the coaching staff should do more to get these players more minutes to keep them in the program, and many will say this about Jaemyn as well. While Brakefield did go through stretches this season on the outside looking in like those who’ve transferred before him, there was not a lack of opportunity in this case. When Jalen Johnson decided to end his career at Duke prematurely, there were plenty of minutes on the table in the frontcourt. For Jaemyn, it was what he didn’t do in the playing time he was given combined with the emergence of Mark Williams that ultimately sealed his fate.

Despite starting the season red hot from three, Brakefield made just 3/22 (13.6%) from long distance in the calendar year. His most consistent run of playing time came at the start of ACC play when Jalen Johnson was nursing his foot injury, but he couldn’t take advantage. In these four games against Notre Dame, Boston College, Wake Forest, and Virginia Tech, Brakefield averaged just 3.5 points and 3.0 rebounds in 21.5 minutes per game, shooting 37.5% from the field and 28.6% from three. His most significant contribution in a Duke uniform came on February 20th, when his block on Kihei Clark and driving reverse layup over Jay Huff propelled Duke to an upset win over #7 Virginia in Cameron Indoor Stadium. Jaemyn had 11 points, 5 rebounds, and 4 blocks in the win, as well as an all-time reaction photo (see below). Brakefield’s success would unfortunately not continue, as he made just four of his last seventeen shot attempts (23.5%) to end the season, including a 1/8 clunker at Georgia Tech in a loss that arguably ended Duke’s NCAA Tournament hopes.

Jaemyn Brakefield strikes a pose after his go-ahead reverse layup against UVA. Source: @DukeMBB

The good news from the Blue Devils’ perspective is that they were a much better team this season when Brakefield wasn’t in the game. With Brakefield on the court, Duke’s offense was almost six points per 100 possessions worse than it was when he wasn’t in the game, and the defense allowed over two points per 100 possessions more with him on the court as well. This on/off split of approximately -8 points per 100 possessions was the worst among all of Duke’s rotation players this season and ballooned all the way below -10 points per 100 possessions when only looking at games against conference opponents. Every player on the roster that played at least 20 minutes paired with Brakefield was a negative on/off combination as well, with the exception of, ironically enough, Jalen Johnson, who was approximately +14 points per 100 possessions on the court with Brakefield in a limited sample size. 

On the other side of things, losing a player with talent is never good news. Although these transfer decisions have tended to prove a lack of minutes correct on several occasions, there’s a Semi Ojeleye who stars in his new home for every Derryck Thornton who doesn’t. Where Jaemyn falls on that scale will play out over time, but while his freshman year statistical profile was certainly rough, there is talent there for sure. It’d be foolish to assume he wouldn’t improve over the course of his collegiate career, and hopefully he can find the right program best suited for his skills in the future. Duke fans should have no hard feelings towards the kid; he gave his all for the entirety of a season unlike any we’ve ever seen before. I'll certainly miss his post footwork. Best of luck, Jaemyn!

Projecting ahead for Duke, as mentioned before, the frontcourt depth should not be any worse for wear without Brakefield. While Matthew Hurt will likely leave Durham for the NBA after his prodigious sophomore season, Duke is bringing in two forwards who should eat up plenty of minutes in A.J. Griffin and Paolo Banchero. Assuming Mark Williams and Henry Coleman III are both returning to Durham (which is probably a foolish thing to assume in modern college basketball), the roles in Duke’s frontcourt should be pretty well defined for a change.  Let’s just hold our breath and hope that nothing happens in the next few months to throw a wrench into this plan. As always, no news is good news this time of year.

#1: The Prologue

I want to preface the entirety of this blog by saying that Duke Basketball as we know it today doesn’t exist without Mike Krzyzewski. He is the reason opposing schools sell out their gyms nearly every single time Duke comes to town. He is the reason that the college basketball media conglomerate talks about the Blue Devils ad nauseam whether they’re #1 in the country or unranked, the latter of which happened this past season for the first time in five years. Most importantly, he’s the reason that five national championship banners hang from the rafters in Cameron Indoor Stadium. He’s in the discussion of the greatest coaches of all-time, regardless of level or sport. 

With all that said, he’s also the reason that Duke has struggled to reach a single Final Four since the championship run in 2015, despite an unmatched level of talent running through Durham during that time period. The six recruiting classes Duke has brought in during that stretch have all ranked in the top two in ESPN’s yearly class rankings. Fifteen players from those teams went on to be selected in the NBA Draft, with at least one more set to be selected in the upcoming 2021 NBA Draft this summer. Let’s take a quick look:

1. Brandon Ingram (2016 #2 Overall)
2. Jayson Tatum (2017 #3 Overall)
3. Luke Kennard (2017 #12 Overall)
4. Harry Giles (2017 #20 Overall)
5. Frank Jackson (2017 #31 Overall)
6. Marvin Bagley III (2018 #2 Overall)
7. Wendell Carter Jr. (2018 #7 Overall)
8. Grayson Allen (2018 #21 Overall)
9. Gary Trent Jr. (2018 #37 Overall)
10. Zion Williamson (2019 #1 Overall)
11. R.J. Barrett (2019 #3 Overall)
12. Cam Reddick (2019 #10 Overall)
13. Vernon Carey Jr. (2020 #32 Overall)
14. Tre Jones (2020 #41 Overall)
15. Cassius Stanley (2020 #54 Overall)

As you can see, the roster clearly has not been the problem for Duke. So what has been? Simply put, Mike Krzyzewski and the entire coaching staff have failed this program year after year since 2015. Nobody around the Duke program would tell you Coach K has lost a step, but why is it so inconceivable to consider the thought? After a home win against NC State in March of 2020, Coach K got on his high horse: “I mean, you can question my coaching and what the hell—and then when you do question it… just come into Cameron and look up in the ceiling, and then find out if you should question that.” Clearly he has heard the noise, but he is not above criticism for the failures that have plagued the program for over half a decade now.

Before Jim Boeheim (76) surpassed his record, John Chaney was the oldest head coach in the history of NCAA Division 1 basketball at 74 years old. Dean Smith retired when he was 66 years old on the heels of a Final Four appearance. John Wooden rode off into the sunset at 64 after winning his tenth championship. Coach K is now 74 years old, and it shows. The hair that many joked for years was dyed jet black to hide his age is finally starting to show some gray, with the stress of this past season not helping matters. But losing games is one thing. It was a conversation with Coach K retold by ESPN’s Jon Sciambi and Jay Bilas in the first half of the 83-68 loss to Illinois in December that drew my personal ire more than the loss itself:

Sciambi: Jay, I want to ask you about something that Coach K talked about yesterday and that was the idea that, in the midst of the pandemic, lack of scrimmages and trying to figure out who your team is, he said he really confessed the idea that what they had initially thought his team would be able to do offensively, once they actually got into games and saw their team on the court, he said “oh no, we can’t do that.” He thought they’d be a little more drive-and-kick, maybe be able to play smaller.

Bilas: Yeah, more a perimeter-oriented team that played more motion and didn’t have as many sets. But they’re going to have to play a little bit bigger. Once he saw them, he realized. There were no exhibitions to see it, and he said “look, you can theorize all you want to, but until you see it on the floor, you don’t really know.” But they’re making adjustments now. Everybody’s in the same boat. Nobody had exhibition games. But when you’ve got an older team, you’ve got a much better feeling of what everybody can do.

I shouldn’t even have to explain why this is so frustrating. It’s quite obvious that, as they’ve had the luxury of doing with their more talent-laden teams over the past few years, the Duke coaching staff thought they could just, as the saying goes, “roll the ball out” and expect this Duke team to win games on the backs of their talent. With hindsight, it’s fairly easy to say they were wrong. In fact, it’s certainly arguable that this was the least talented Duke team since the turn of the century, but this isn’t on the players. Every adjustment that the coaching staff made throughout the first two months of the season simply did not work. What’s even worse is there were simply too many occasions this season where the team didn’t even come ready to play until they were down 10-15 points. If you ask Coach K, all of this season's shortcomings were a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and college basketball shouldn't have even been played this year. While he certainly had a fair point regarding the risks taken this season, blaming anything that happened to Duke in 2020-21 on the pandemic is as poor an attempt at deflecting as going after a student journalist following a loss was. The pandemic did affect every team in the country, after all. 

Let’s get back to the big picture. You might ask yourself, “Why is this blog called ‘Save Duke Basketball’”? For the last five seasons, I’ve often likened Coach K’s strategy to coaching/recruiting as trying to hit walk-off home runs in the bottom of the ninth as his career comes to an end. While the team was nowhere close to good enough to capture the title this year, you can rest assured that he’s lining up another swing for the fences next season. As the man who built the program into what it is today, Duke will never show Coach K the door. While he obviously wants the sixth championship ring as a storybook ending to his illustrious career, he’s getting further and further away from it as he gets older and loses the ability to do the things that got him here in the first place. There are at least twenty coaches in Division I right now that could’ve won at least one championship with the rosters that Duke has had in place since the 2014-15 championship season, and that might be an underestimate. Krzyzewski just isn’t one of them anymore, and he’s too stuck in his own ways to realize it.